Stocks

[Andrew]

Zoom is so detached from fundamentals. Trading @ 1700 times earnings. Take your gains! The rest are solid holds.

[Andrew]

May 4, 2020 14:07:16 GMT -8 manasrai said:

Don't like the taxes on short term earnings

Best solution is to take an equal amount of short term losses    

[Lasagna and tears of failure]

May 4, 2020 13:51:45 GMT -8 manasrai said:

Made $37K today!

vegas trip on manasrai 

[Erbes]

May 4, 2020 14:08:32 GMT -8 Andrew said:

Zoom is so detached from fundamentals. Trading @ 1700 times earnings. Take your gains! The rest are solid holds.

you just described the entirety of the stock market

[frangie]

Don’t day trade. Lol

[frangie]

All of the research shows that the majority (not all) of people who are good, are just the product of luck and survivorship bias.

[Deleted]

frongle youre right except they arent the product of survivorship bias. sb is when people look to the winner and think day trading is replicable!

[GAME]

Thanks Covid for that tip at .89 on Microvision ..made some beer money sad I only bought 250 shares

[manasrai]

May 4, 2020 15:03:40 GMT -8 frangie said:

All of the research shows that the majority (not all) of people who are good, are just the product of luck and survivorship bias.

What is survivorship bias?

[ashes]

May 4, 2020 11:17:52 GMT -8 Andrew said:

I'm really high on AMD. Recent earnings were disappointing but they're overtaking Intel shortly.

amd made me some solid money relatively recently

[frangie]

May 4, 2020 15:10:58 GMT -8 @aaronjh said:

frongle youre right except they arent the product of survivorship bias. sb is when people look to the winner and think day trading is replicable!

Yes, you are correct

[frangie]

May 5, 2020 15:10:14 GMT -8 manasrai said:

May 4, 2020 15:03:40 GMT -8 frangie said:

All of the research shows that the majority (not all) of people who are good, are just the product of luck and survivorship bias.

What is survivorship bias?

It’s the phenomenon that people who survive or do well via luck appear to be skilled.

Let’s say there’s a 45% chance of making money day trading each year. 100 guys try it. 45 make money by sheer luck the first year. 20 or so of the 45 make money year 2, again just by luck. 9 of those 29 make money year 3, 4 of the 9 make money year 4, and finally 1 guy of the 4 makes money in year 5. 

Just based on luck 1/100 guys makes money each of the five years. But he appears to be pretty smart right? Successfully day traded five straight years. And that’s the guy you hear about because the people that lost money quit and you never heard of them.  

[manasrai]

May 5, 2020 15:21:12 GMT -8 frangie said:

May 5, 2020 15:10:14 GMT -8 manasrai said:

What is survivorship bias?

It’s the phenomenon that people who survive or do well via luck appear to be skilled.

Let’s say there’s a 45% chance of making money day trading each year. 100 guys try it. 45 make money by sheer luck the first year. 20 or so of the 45 make money year 2, again just by luck. 9 of those 29 make money year 3, 4 of the 9 make money year 4, and finally 1 guy of the 4 makes money in year 5. 

Just based on luck 1/100 guys makes money each of the five years. But he appears to be pretty smart right? Successfully day traded five straight years. And that’s the guy you hear about because the people that lost money quit and you never heard of them.  

Gotcha - so really only applicable to day trading.

[frangie]

May 5, 2020 15:22:46 GMT -8 manasrai said:

May 5, 2020 15:21:12 GMT -8 frangie said:

It’s the phenomenon that people who survive or do well via luck appear to be skilled.

Let’s say there’s a 45% chance of making money day trading each year. 100 guys try it. 45 make money by sheer luck the first year. 20 or so of the 45 make money year 2, again just by luck. 9 of those 29 make money year 3, 4 of the 9 make money year 4, and finally 1 guy of the 4 makes money in year 5. 

Just based on luck 1/100 guys makes money each of the five years. But he appears to be pretty smart right? Successfully day traded five straight years. And that’s the guy you hear about because the people that lost money quit and you never heard of them.  

Gotcha - so really only applicable to day trading.

It applies to anything that is majority luck dependent really. Gambling/sports betting. Even mutual funds. The ones that do poorly get shut down, the ones that do well get continued. If a new firm started and made 20 funds, a couple would do great by luck at the end of five years, then they could tout their awesome funds and pretend the others never existed 

[manasrai]

May 4, 2020 14:08:32 GMT -8 Andrew said:

Zoom is so detached from fundamentals. Trading @ 1700 times earnings. Take your gains! The rest are solid holds.

Zooooooooom

[ashes]

i don't know what zoom is

[manasrai]

Virtual meeting platform

[manasrai]

Think google hangouts for business

[ashes]

oh, i imagine we use proprietary stuff so makes sense i've never heard of it

[manasrai]

Anyone else having a great day in the market?

[Nanz]

Survivorship bias is overstating returns by excluding previous bad performers that have gone bankrupt or been exclude from your sample data

[frangie]

May 7, 2020 11:50:36 GMT -8 Nanz said:

Survivorship bias is overstating returns by excluding previous bad performers that have gone bankrupt or been exclude from your sample data

Isn’t that just an eloquent way of saying what I said? I’ve been Jim Nantz’ed

[Andrew]

what are the hot tips for tomorrow at the open?

[manasrai]

May 11, 2020 16:31:47 GMT -8 Andrew said:

what are the hot tips for tomorrow at the open?

Do you believe in Zoom yet? ;-)

[Andrew]

May 11, 2020 17:12:42 GMT -8 manasrai said:

May 11, 2020 16:31:47 GMT -8 Andrew said:

what are the hot tips for tomorrow at the open?

Do you believe in Zoom yet? ;-)

ugh so hard to buy in at the highs. It'll be interesting to see if it faces the same resistance from late April.

[Deleted]

I downloaded Robinhood, an app.

[Erbes]

May 13, 2020 6:39:52 GMT -8 @jaycatch said:

I downloaded Robinhood, an app.

whats the latest on robinhood? i thought they were having issues.

[Andrew]

May 13, 2020 6:52:34 GMT -8 Erbes said:

May 13, 2020 6:39:52 GMT -8 @jaycatch said:

I downloaded Robinhood, an app.

whats the latest on robinhood? i thought they were having issues.

its been fine the past month or so. They did have some problems back in the February time frame with people not being able to buy or sell.    

[Von]

May 13, 2020 7:27:33 GMT -8 Andrew said:

May 13, 2020 6:52:34 GMT -8 Erbes said:

whats the latest on robinhood? i thought they were having issues.

its been fine the past month or so. They did have some problems back in the February time frame with people not being able to buy or sell.    

I use Robinhood and it's been fine.

[greeme]

meh