Post by frangie on May 4, 2020 21:50:51 GMT -8
Fifteen days into the season, and it seems like everyone has something to be excited about. Maybe it’s their team off to a strong start, or an RC’d player going off. For others, it’s the losses they are excited about in the race to the bottom, and/or a young guy putting up #’s early on in his career and exceeding expectations.
I was going to try to do a big team predictions article before the season started, but we went so fast I didn’t have time. So, I did it anyway, but with the benefit of a few games here. I used a mix of a rating system I use to judge players as well as team results so far to guide my predictions for records. If you add up all the wins and losses, it ties out (1189-1189). There seem to be plenty of non-ranking articles, so I threw my hat into the ring here.
For the tankers, I’ve got a race to the bottom section as well. Note the win totals may not be low enough for some bad teams, I was more concerned with the relative order than actual wins. Note when teams are close in wins, it was a close call and could have gone either way. Let’s get into it!
East
1. Knicks (60-22) Currently 7-4 with a +10 pt differential, they have the most talented roster in the league according to my proprietary rating system. MJ will be unleashed on the league at some point and this team will perform even better than it already has. As it is, the Knicks have been a top 10 team in terms of point differential per possession according to my estimates.
2. Hornets (56-26) Off to a strong 6-2 start with a +12 differential, New Orleans has Alonzo Mourning to thank. Many said he was the steal of the first round and that appears to be right! They have been third in offense and sixth in defense so far on a per possession basis. That’s impressive considering the division they plan in!
3. Pacers (53-29) Teams #3 to #6 could really be any order. At 10-3, Indiana has the inside track to be the top of that grouping. Nash has been great but Brand hasn’t really even taken off yet! This squad ranks in the top 10 for offense and defense for me so far. One thing to watch – they are a stellar 7-0 at home!
4. Nets (52-30) New Jersey has underperformed so far, no doubt. But, this was a preseason title contender for a reason. Ben Wallace has missed some time, but the real culprit is they’ve only had 2 out of 13 games at home so far. Greeme seems to be a good GM so I think he’ll get these guys back on track before too long.
5. Bulls (51-31) Chicago is off to a strong start at 7-4, and only four of those were at home. Their offense is actually #1 so far according to my statistics, on the back of low turnovers (2nd least), as well as a high number of free throw attempts and shooting 50% from downtown. The defense has been average, but they’ve found a DC that works offensively for sure! Finley looks like an awesome pick for them now.
6. Cavs (50-32) Another underperforming team to start the year, this team still has a lot of talent. KG/Webb/LJ/KVH is quite the front line. C-Webb has missed three games (0-3) and LJ has missed some time, but they’ve still got a slightly positive point differential on the year. Cleveland’s GM has been unafraid to make moves, so if they need to make a deal to make the talent fit better together, I think they will be able to.
7. Pistons (46-36) If they were in the West, Detroit would be competing for home court advantage in round one of the playoffs. Alas they are in the east, with a solid team that ranks around the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively so far. Grant Hill is leading the way, but solid depth up and down the lineup is what makes them go.
8. 76ers (44-38) It’s going to be one hell of a race for the 8 seed in the East for sure. Right now, I have to give the edge to the team from Phili. Their young guns Jamison and Mashburn have been putting up points and they are thus competing sooner than expected! Their offensive and defensive efficiency are both in the top 10 so far as they are tied for the lead in the division.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Knicks>76ers, Hornets>Pistons, Cavs>Pacers (upset!), Nets>Bulls
ECSF: Knicks>Nets, Hornets>Cavs
ECF: Knicks>Hornets
For the most part I follow my seeding, just think the Cavs are more talented than the Pacers, the difference in W/L so far will be tough to make up during the regular season though.
Rounds 2 and 3 should be awesome in the East. Even round 1 should be pretty good, with the 3/6 and 4/5 matchups going 6 or 7 games. I could see any of my final 4 in the East winning the conference and pulling through to the finals.
West
1. Nuggets (58-24) Shaq is an absolute monster! Denver is second in their division at 8-3, but Shaq has anchored the #1 defense in the league on a per possession basis. They are also fifth offensively by that metric. Their 3-point % has been unreal, 52%! Shaq and Dyess are really opening things up for the old guys along the arc, and they are cashing in.
2. Clippers (55-27) Obviously this is biased because the team Darrell and I drafted was partially based on my rating system. That said, my #’s show us 6th in offense and 4th in defense despite GP missing half our games so far. Here’s hoping we go on a run next sim!
3. Jazz (53-29) Utah is off to an amazing start, best in the West! A +15 point differential is incredible. They rank in the top 5 in both offense and defense so far, feeding on the weak Western conference. Houston and D-Rob have been a phenomenal duo. Kudos to JR for making a top team from a late first round slot! Their guard defense drags them down in my ratings a bit, which may just be a flaw in my rating system. Oh yeah, these stats include 3 games without D-Rob!
4. Grizzlies (51-31) With a 6-2 beginning of the season, these guys look pretty good. The offense hasn’t been great, but the defense has been nothing short of spectacular. They rank #2 defensively for me so far statistically. Jalen Rose has played well. If they can squeeze a little more offense out with a tweaked DC, they should hit 50 wins in the West.
5. T-Wolves (46-36) The team from Minnesota is young but too good to tank after starting 7-3 and rocking a very strong defense (#3 statistically). They need to score more, Vince can’t do it all himself (yet), but they can figure that out over time. I pegged them around .500 coming into the season, but the West is too bad for them to not exceed 41 wins.
6. Mavs (39-43) While Dallas currently sits at 7-5, they are a young team with a ways to go. I think they still finish slightly under .500. T-Mac is still too inefficient, but has a ton of potential obviously. JO isn’t quite there yet either. That 7-5 record is bolstered by 8 home games. All that said, this is the West, so they should make the playoffs.
7. Warriors (37-45) Golden State has been good so far. Another young team doing better than expected due to playing in the West… But man, Dirk is so legit offensively already. Chauncey looks good too, one of the better young PG’s in the league… Wait he’s 24 already? Yeesh. I could see them moving some solid bench pieces to a contender for picks and to help them get in the lotto, if they decide to go that direction.
8. Sonics (34-48) Man we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Seattle should get to 30 wins in the weak weak West, especially the Pacific. They’ve actually been solid defensively, maybe due to opponents, but a good defense in this division will get you some wins by itself. Pierce has shot really well on twos and will be a stud if his 3p% picks up in the future.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Nuggets>Sonics, Clips>Warriors, Jazz>Mavs, Grizz>TWolves
WCSF: Nuggs>Grizz, Jazz>Clips
WCF: Jazz>Nuggs
The first round should be pretty boring, with maybe only the 4/5 series being interesting. From there, I go a little off script, with the Jazz “upsetting” the Clips and the Nuggs. I think only those 3 teams could come out of the West. Having an A+ defense center in Robinson to guard Duncan and Shaq is very helpful for Denver!
Finals Prediction: Knicks over Jazz in 6. Knicks aren’t reliant on their center, so the D-Rob advantage isn't so important. MJ locks up Houston to get his 7th ring!
New York just has too good of a roster top to bottom to not be the favorite, in my opinion.
Race to the Bottom (lotto projection)
1. LA Lakers (20-62)
2. Washington (25-57)
3. Phoenix (26-56)
4. San Antonio (26-56)
5. Orlando (27-55)
6. Portland (29-53)
7. Atlanta (30-52)
8. Houston (31-51)
9. Sacramento (32-50)
10. Milwaukee (33-49)
11. Miami (40-42)
12. Toronto (42-40)
13. Boston (43-39)
The last three teams could all make the playoffs, and they would if they were in the West... Sac could be a playoff team too but just because they are in the West. Any of the teams 1-10 here could end up with a top 3 worst record depending on trades, lineups, etc. They are rooting for losses, that is for sure!
Would love to hear people's thoughts. Too much non-league talk!
I was going to try to do a big team predictions article before the season started, but we went so fast I didn’t have time. So, I did it anyway, but with the benefit of a few games here. I used a mix of a rating system I use to judge players as well as team results so far to guide my predictions for records. If you add up all the wins and losses, it ties out (1189-1189). There seem to be plenty of non-ranking articles, so I threw my hat into the ring here.
For the tankers, I’ve got a race to the bottom section as well. Note the win totals may not be low enough for some bad teams, I was more concerned with the relative order than actual wins. Note when teams are close in wins, it was a close call and could have gone either way. Let’s get into it!
East
1. Knicks (60-22) Currently 7-4 with a +10 pt differential, they have the most talented roster in the league according to my proprietary rating system. MJ will be unleashed on the league at some point and this team will perform even better than it already has. As it is, the Knicks have been a top 10 team in terms of point differential per possession according to my estimates.
2. Hornets (56-26) Off to a strong 6-2 start with a +12 differential, New Orleans has Alonzo Mourning to thank. Many said he was the steal of the first round and that appears to be right! They have been third in offense and sixth in defense so far on a per possession basis. That’s impressive considering the division they plan in!
3. Pacers (53-29) Teams #3 to #6 could really be any order. At 10-3, Indiana has the inside track to be the top of that grouping. Nash has been great but Brand hasn’t really even taken off yet! This squad ranks in the top 10 for offense and defense for me so far. One thing to watch – they are a stellar 7-0 at home!
4. Nets (52-30) New Jersey has underperformed so far, no doubt. But, this was a preseason title contender for a reason. Ben Wallace has missed some time, but the real culprit is they’ve only had 2 out of 13 games at home so far. Greeme seems to be a good GM so I think he’ll get these guys back on track before too long.
5. Bulls (51-31) Chicago is off to a strong start at 7-4, and only four of those were at home. Their offense is actually #1 so far according to my statistics, on the back of low turnovers (2nd least), as well as a high number of free throw attempts and shooting 50% from downtown. The defense has been average, but they’ve found a DC that works offensively for sure! Finley looks like an awesome pick for them now.
6. Cavs (50-32) Another underperforming team to start the year, this team still has a lot of talent. KG/Webb/LJ/KVH is quite the front line. C-Webb has missed three games (0-3) and LJ has missed some time, but they’ve still got a slightly positive point differential on the year. Cleveland’s GM has been unafraid to make moves, so if they need to make a deal to make the talent fit better together, I think they will be able to.
7. Pistons (46-36) If they were in the West, Detroit would be competing for home court advantage in round one of the playoffs. Alas they are in the east, with a solid team that ranks around the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively so far. Grant Hill is leading the way, but solid depth up and down the lineup is what makes them go.
8. 76ers (44-38) It’s going to be one hell of a race for the 8 seed in the East for sure. Right now, I have to give the edge to the team from Phili. Their young guns Jamison and Mashburn have been putting up points and they are thus competing sooner than expected! Their offensive and defensive efficiency are both in the top 10 so far as they are tied for the lead in the division.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Knicks>76ers, Hornets>Pistons, Cavs>Pacers (upset!), Nets>Bulls
ECSF: Knicks>Nets, Hornets>Cavs
ECF: Knicks>Hornets
For the most part I follow my seeding, just think the Cavs are more talented than the Pacers, the difference in W/L so far will be tough to make up during the regular season though.
Rounds 2 and 3 should be awesome in the East. Even round 1 should be pretty good, with the 3/6 and 4/5 matchups going 6 or 7 games. I could see any of my final 4 in the East winning the conference and pulling through to the finals.
West
1. Nuggets (58-24) Shaq is an absolute monster! Denver is second in their division at 8-3, but Shaq has anchored the #1 defense in the league on a per possession basis. They are also fifth offensively by that metric. Their 3-point % has been unreal, 52%! Shaq and Dyess are really opening things up for the old guys along the arc, and they are cashing in.
2. Clippers (55-27) Obviously this is biased because the team Darrell and I drafted was partially based on my rating system. That said, my #’s show us 6th in offense and 4th in defense despite GP missing half our games so far. Here’s hoping we go on a run next sim!
3. Jazz (53-29) Utah is off to an amazing start, best in the West! A +15 point differential is incredible. They rank in the top 5 in both offense and defense so far, feeding on the weak Western conference. Houston and D-Rob have been a phenomenal duo. Kudos to JR for making a top team from a late first round slot! Their guard defense drags them down in my ratings a bit, which may just be a flaw in my rating system. Oh yeah, these stats include 3 games without D-Rob!
4. Grizzlies (51-31) With a 6-2 beginning of the season, these guys look pretty good. The offense hasn’t been great, but the defense has been nothing short of spectacular. They rank #2 defensively for me so far statistically. Jalen Rose has played well. If they can squeeze a little more offense out with a tweaked DC, they should hit 50 wins in the West.
5. T-Wolves (46-36) The team from Minnesota is young but too good to tank after starting 7-3 and rocking a very strong defense (#3 statistically). They need to score more, Vince can’t do it all himself (yet), but they can figure that out over time. I pegged them around .500 coming into the season, but the West is too bad for them to not exceed 41 wins.
6. Mavs (39-43) While Dallas currently sits at 7-5, they are a young team with a ways to go. I think they still finish slightly under .500. T-Mac is still too inefficient, but has a ton of potential obviously. JO isn’t quite there yet either. That 7-5 record is bolstered by 8 home games. All that said, this is the West, so they should make the playoffs.
7. Warriors (37-45) Golden State has been good so far. Another young team doing better than expected due to playing in the West… But man, Dirk is so legit offensively already. Chauncey looks good too, one of the better young PG’s in the league… Wait he’s 24 already? Yeesh. I could see them moving some solid bench pieces to a contender for picks and to help them get in the lotto, if they decide to go that direction.
8. Sonics (34-48) Man we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Seattle should get to 30 wins in the weak weak West, especially the Pacific. They’ve actually been solid defensively, maybe due to opponents, but a good defense in this division will get you some wins by itself. Pierce has shot really well on twos and will be a stud if his 3p% picks up in the future.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Nuggets>Sonics, Clips>Warriors, Jazz>Mavs, Grizz>TWolves
WCSF: Nuggs>Grizz, Jazz>Clips
WCF: Jazz>Nuggs
The first round should be pretty boring, with maybe only the 4/5 series being interesting. From there, I go a little off script, with the Jazz “upsetting” the Clips and the Nuggs. I think only those 3 teams could come out of the West. Having an A+ defense center in Robinson to guard Duncan and Shaq is very helpful for Denver!
Finals Prediction: Knicks over Jazz in 6. Knicks aren’t reliant on their center, so the D-Rob advantage isn't so important. MJ locks up Houston to get his 7th ring!
New York just has too good of a roster top to bottom to not be the favorite, in my opinion.
Race to the Bottom (lotto projection)
1. LA Lakers (20-62)
2. Washington (25-57)
3. Phoenix (26-56)
4. San Antonio (26-56)
5. Orlando (27-55)
6. Portland (29-53)
7. Atlanta (30-52)
8. Houston (31-51)
9. Sacramento (32-50)
10. Milwaukee (33-49)
11. Miami (40-42)
12. Toronto (42-40)
13. Boston (43-39)
The last three teams could all make the playoffs, and they would if they were in the West... Sac could be a playoff team too but just because they are in the West. Any of the teams 1-10 here could end up with a top 3 worst record depending on trades, lineups, etc. They are rooting for losses, that is for sure!
Would love to hear people's thoughts. Too much non-league talk!
