Post by Lasagna and tears of failure on May 24, 2020 22:12:29 GMT -8
Red’s Draft Class RPEF update
Welcome back to the midseason update to find out how your picks actually are lining up. Orlando almost looks like they stole the draft, however when you have nothing, somebody has to account for some points, right? This is starting to look like the weakness to the RPEF, much like the PER rewards people with low minutes. The next evolution of the rating should take into account the team record, because there is no I in team, just at me!
So, let us get to the meat (and not the NY Strip that I cooked last night), here is the results early on. If you remember this was just 20is games into the season, but remarkably it aged well.
That was then....
If you remember from the refresher Manu was #1 early on, and while he hasn’t fallen off much, the new to spot is Joe down in Magic land. While I have always been a fan of JJ, I really think a lot of his rating is because there is no one else on the team. I have got to figure out how to incorporate a shitty record versus a good one in. The problem is Battier for the Celtics has close to the same rating as he did when the Celtics weren’t winning. The Bucks improved their draft grade by trading for a draftee that they didn’t draft, however they really need to step up their game in 02. Pretty sure I’m way too lazy to do the cell formula to line up by copy paste off of team name. Again, very easy to do when programming, but trying to do DB table stuff in excel is beyond tedious.
This is now...
AK has gotten a little bit better for 16 mil a year....
Now here we sort based on minutes and then ratings to see how the ones playing against scrubs rate. Tony Delk is included as a reference as he only plays against scrubs and barely makes it into the average rating of players which is the 16.5-18.6 range. So sems Tony is better than a lot of the scrubs from the draft.
Now the Red’s PEF is actually four formulas that are combined into one. One of those formulas is the only defensive stats we have available with this old engine. From that is our last review. Here we see that maybe just maybe Battier was a pretty good pick. While you cannot see the “score” this was sorted on, three of the top five where Centers, and again Manu is right up there on this list as well.
Early on I was high on Okur, but his rating has fallen way off, and now is looking like just another Magloire. The guy that is currently looking like the steel of the draft is Eddie Griffin of the Magic. Not only is he coming with a respectable RPEF number he is also #1 in the D sort.
For those that do not read ever article I write little history about the RPEF:*
I looked at the PER formula by John Hollinger, and realized while I would not mind programming it, doing it in excel would blow chunks. So I looked at combining a basic version of his idea with the outdated ( (ppg+R+A+B+S-TO) to come up with a rating that not only rewarded a good EFT, but also penalized people from missing fee points. I’m sure Shaq hates this formula that I developed. While it really hurt his points portion of the formula, his nonstop rebounding and the best assist per game rate of any of the Centers has him as one of the best Centers in the game. Now to validate the formula I looked at historical data of some of the best players to ever play the game and then further tweaked the formula to reward steals a tad more than blocks as a block doesn’t automatically cause a turnover. At no point was the PEF copied or tweaked, just a few ideas about what he has done.
*pretty sure articles aren’t read in their entirety often as I keep finding horrible grammar errors that NO ONE points out.
Welcome back to the midseason update to find out how your picks actually are lining up. Orlando almost looks like they stole the draft, however when you have nothing, somebody has to account for some points, right? This is starting to look like the weakness to the RPEF, much like the PER rewards people with low minutes. The next evolution of the rating should take into account the team record, because there is no I in team, just at me!
So, let us get to the meat (and not the NY Strip that I cooked last night), here is the results early on. If you remember this was just 20is games into the season, but remarkably it aged well.
That was then....
If you remember from the refresher Manu was #1 early on, and while he hasn’t fallen off much, the new to spot is Joe down in Magic land. While I have always been a fan of JJ, I really think a lot of his rating is because there is no one else on the team. I have got to figure out how to incorporate a shitty record versus a good one in. The problem is Battier for the Celtics has close to the same rating as he did when the Celtics weren’t winning. The Bucks improved their draft grade by trading for a draftee that they didn’t draft, however they really need to step up their game in 02. Pretty sure I’m way too lazy to do the cell formula to line up by copy paste off of team name. Again, very easy to do when programming, but trying to do DB table stuff in excel is beyond tedious.
This is now...
AK has gotten a little bit better for 16 mil a year....
Now here we sort based on minutes and then ratings to see how the ones playing against scrubs rate. Tony Delk is included as a reference as he only plays against scrubs and barely makes it into the average rating of players which is the 16.5-18.6 range. So sems Tony is better than a lot of the scrubs from the draft.
Now the Red’s PEF is actually four formulas that are combined into one. One of those formulas is the only defensive stats we have available with this old engine. From that is our last review. Here we see that maybe just maybe Battier was a pretty good pick. While you cannot see the “score” this was sorted on, three of the top five where Centers, and again Manu is right up there on this list as well.
Early on I was high on Okur, but his rating has fallen way off, and now is looking like just another Magloire. The guy that is currently looking like the steel of the draft is Eddie Griffin of the Magic. Not only is he coming with a respectable RPEF number he is also #1 in the D sort.
For those that do not read ever article I write little history about the RPEF:*
I looked at the PER formula by John Hollinger, and realized while I would not mind programming it, doing it in excel would blow chunks. So I looked at combining a basic version of his idea with the outdated ( (ppg+R+A+B+S-TO) to come up with a rating that not only rewarded a good EFT, but also penalized people from missing fee points. I’m sure Shaq hates this formula that I developed. While it really hurt his points portion of the formula, his nonstop rebounding and the best assist per game rate of any of the Centers has him as one of the best Centers in the game. Now to validate the formula I looked at historical data of some of the best players to ever play the game and then further tweaked the formula to reward steals a tad more than blocks as a block doesn’t automatically cause a turnover. At no point was the PEF copied or tweaked, just a few ideas about what he has done.
*pretty sure articles aren’t read in their entirety often as I keep finding horrible grammar errors that NO ONE points out.
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but that's actually worse since that means he hasn't been going against C's 
