Post by Erbes on May 26, 2020 17:44:44 GMT -8
Erbes’ (Crazyish) Predictions!
With the season winding down MOST things in the league have been decided at this point. But that’s only MOST! I’ll make some (crazyish) predictions of things that I think could still happen before we crown a champion in the year of our lord BBS 2001.
1. There is another crazy trade coming!
We have already seen deals involving Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Kobe Bryant, Antoine Walker, Joe Johnson, Nick Van Exel, Damon Stoudamire, SAR, JUWAN HOWARD, and picks upon picks during this frenzy. Not to mention Alonzo Mourning and Tracy McGrady right before. That is a lot of talent to change hands in any given season, let alone within a 2 day span. And I say we aren’t done! We have a ton of busy body traders in the league always looking to make moves to upgrade. My prediction is we have another whale of a trade coming. Specifically, I think Steve Nash finds his way to another team. For some crazy reason Ashes tore down a nice combo of Kobe-Nash just because Kobe was out for the year. I don’t think he’s done tearing! I think Nash finds his way to the Dallas Mavericks somehow. Feels like we’re way overdue for a Habes-Ashes blockbuster.
2. The Lakers make their CY this year!
Don’t look now, but Nanz has the Lake Show looking hot! Gil Arenas has literally said get on my back boys I’m carrying us to the CY promiseland!!! Dude is averaging 22 ppg on 45.8% shooting with a manageable 3.0 topg. Fire! Let’s take a look at the Lakers’ remaining schedule:
91 Lakers @ Trail Blazers
92 Lakers @ Rockets
93 Raptors @ Lakers
94 Lakers @ Hawks
95 Suns @ Lakers
96 Lakers @ Super Sonics
98 Kings @ Lakers
99 Lakers @ Nets
101 Lakers @ Kings
104 Jazz @ Lakers
105 Lakers @ Timberwolves
106 Lakers @ Rockets
108 Warriors @ Lakers
110 Hawks @ Lakers
111 Lakers @ Celtics
114 Lakers @ Spurs
116 Lakers @ Warriors
117 Lakers @ Hornets
Alright so that’s 18 games left. As a reminder to make CY you need to hit 42 or make the playoffs. The Lakers sit at 28-36. To hit 42 they’d need to go 14-4 over that final stretch. Doable! I’ve highlighted those games that I think are for sure losses in red, above. It’s only one game! The West is very open right now. The Jazz, Kings, Spurs, Warriors are all pretty much the same team at this point. And the Lakers are beating those types of teams! But I’ll admit, 14-4 would be tough! However, they’re only 3.5 games back from the Spurs right now for the 8th seed. The Spurs have been all over the place this year. Trading for Zo, trading Zo. Who knows what they’re doing. Day 114 could be a pretty huge game! I’m giving the edge to the Lakers!
3. Neither #1 seed will make it the championship!
Sorry boys. This is just how it’s going to go. Now you may be saying well this isn't that crazy because FBB playoffs are a crapshoot and who knows what’s going to happen! True! But here’s my sound logic. The Nets haven’t faced a complete East squad yet. Teams have either been shuffling guys in and out in trades (Heat, Knicks) or their teams have underperformed significantly (Bulls). I think this has lulled Greeme into a sense of false safety. He’s run pretty much the same DC all season and hasn’t experimented against different teams' setups too much. This could be bad news for him in the playoffs when a slight tinker here or there could be all the difference.
Don’t let froggie or Darell trick you… the Clippers are a one trick pony. Stump the pony and the jig is up. Could Shaq shut down Duncan in the playoffs? In their match ups this year Shaq has held Tim to 28 pts, 18 pts, and 35 pts. That’s an average of 27 pgg. That’s 3 points below Duncan’s average for the season AND when Shaq was hurt for one of the games Duncan popped off for 46 points. The potential is there! Plus the Clippers haven’t faced the Nuggets since the acquisition of Jalen Rose. I think this all adds up to the Clipps being bounced and froggie rejecting the chance to GM another team out of shame this time.
4. The race to the bottom is going to get weird!
Now that the frenzy has happened and all of the tanking teams have traded anyone with B B for a junk drawer 2nd and expiring the race for the #1 is officially on. 30 more days to decide who has the best chance to land Yao. I don't think anyone has a chance to catch the Rockets, however, landing in the top 3 is really the only opportunity to leapfrog into that coveted #1 pick. It's important! As it stands as of Day 90 here’s the ranking of the top 7 (really the people with a shot):
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (.357 WPCT)
6. Indiana Pacers (.355)
5. Atlanta Hawks (.350)
4. Phoenix Suns (.328)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (.295)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (.277)
1. Houston Rockets (.119)
I actually can’t believe the Rockets’ ability to lose. Very impressive. And literally no regression to the mean all year. Insane. The biggest mover and shaker during the frenzy were the Timberwolves. They traded SAR and Stoudamire for picks. I think that catapults them up (or is it down) the rankings. The Suns also finally got rid of their over producers and should start to rack of the L’s. Additionally, imvho (humble) I think more talent, overall, went from the East to the West making it easier for the West teams to lose. On the Eastside, the Bucks haven’t made a significant move, but both the 76ers and Hawks have been shipping out talent. Chalk all of that up and I think here’s how it ends:
7. Indiana Pacers
6. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Atlanta Hawks
4. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Phoenix Suns
1. Houston Rockets
Let the draft gods forever be in your favor!
5. The Orlando Magic and Seattle Supersonics will be CY’d!
Okay this isn’t a prediction for this year, but let’s bookmark it! I don’t think anyone could doubt that the Magic got really good value when they traded Walker, Johnson, and a lotto pick for Kobe Bryant. But has anyone looked at the roster after the trade? They’re obviously banking on landing some free agents when the league-wide free-for-all happens after the 2002 season, but uhhhh what happens if they don’t land someone? Which is entirely possible! That would then mean they’d have to trade Kobe for pennies on the dollar to make sure they hit 42. I don’t know, seems risky! I enjoy when teams go for it, but maybe it was a little early to pull a move like this. Joe and Antoine plus a good forward from this draft might have been a safer path forward.
And that brings us to the Sonics. Stuck in mediocrity it’s not clear to see what the Sonics’ path to 42 is other than gambling on FAs in 2002. Not super safe, my man! Chandler and Miller look to be busts, while Pierce is putting up dime-a-dozen numbers in a league swamped with wings. Don’t get me wrong, Pierce has lots of value! Only 24 and could easily be AC’d into the higher echelon of wings. I’m just not sure 13rock is the guy to do it. Habes recently offered some advice to the guy telling him to trade Pierce for more assets. It could be wise.
Alright there you have it. Putting my balls on the line. Let’s see how they shake out!
