Before we get to the percentages and who has landed where and how often, let's start with some fun facts from the lotto:
- There have been 23 drafts thus far. I’m looking at specifically the first 3 spots (projected and actual). That gives us 69 spots to examine. Always nice to examine 69.
- The teams that have landed the most number 1 picks is the Nets (2006, 2020, 2021) followed by the Raptors (2019, 2023), 76ers (2002, 2008) and Blazers (2009, 2022) with 2 each.
- The teams that have landed the most number 2 picks are the Sonics with 3 (2006, 2020, 2023) followed by the Lakers (2001, 2014), Kings (2002, 2013), Rockets (2007, 2012) and Suns (2017, 2018) with 2 each.
- The team that has landed the most number 3 picks is the Magic with 4 (2001, 2009, 2013, 2023).
- The Nets are the only team to land back to back top picks.
- Portland is the only team to have back to back top projected 1sts (2022 and 2023). They landed the top pick in 22 but fell to 4 in 23.
- The Hawks are the only franchise to never draft in the top 3. They had 2nd projected in 2005, 1st projected in 2006. Both years they fell to 4th overall. Since then, they’ve never had a top 3 projected pick.
- The biggest jump was the Nets in 2021, going from 13 to 1.
- Only twice has all 3 top projected picks dropped and both were recent (2021 and 2023)
So, what have been the outcomes of the lotto's so far? Well...
| Projected: | 1st Overall | 2nd Overall | 3rd Overall | 4th Overall | 5th Overall | 6th Overall |
| 1st | 17% | 22% | 17% | 48% | 0% | 0%
|
| 2nd | 48% | 4% | 17% | 13% | 17% | 0%
|
| 3rd | 9% | 22% | 13% | 35% | 22% | 9% |
| 4th | 4% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 5th | 4% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 6th | 4% | 4% | 30% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 7th | 0% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 8th | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 9th | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 10th | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 11th | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 12th | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| 13th | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0%
| 0%
|
So what does this all mean? I highlighted the important numbers but going by what has happened thus far:
- 1st projected has dropped to 4th more often then it has stayed at 1st overall or 2nd overall combined.
- 2nd projected moving up to 1 and 1st projected dropping to 4th have happened the most.
- While the 13th pick moved up once in 23 drafts, the 11th and 12th pick have seen upward movement at all.
- 6th and 7th seem to be the sweet spot to move up. While they aren't moving up to 1st often, they are moving up to 2 and 3 a solid amount.
Obviously, lotto isn't something that can be controlled and at the end of the day, it's all luck. Still, for those that try to end up in certain spots or try to avoid the top projected pick, this might be interesting stuff.
