Post by Lasagna and tears of failure on Jul 10, 2020 12:31:46 GMT -8
Red’s Midseason 04 Rookies / 03 Sophomores Review
Welcome to a first look at the guys drafted early in the 1st the last two seasons. Previously I have broken players up into each position, but for better value we are looking at the Bigs, the Wings and the PG’s.
The Bigs top 4 are 2 guys from last year followed by 2 guys from this year. Bosh has the best overall score of any of the Rooks /Sophs, and is number 1 of the Bigs followed by West, Kaman, and Howard. The only Big to get close to a .500% EFT was Sweetney, with Collision of the Suns just being one of the worst guys you want taking a shot. While none of the Bigs are over a 1 in PpS, there are numerous that are above 1 in BihP which is a great sign these guys are physical and will get to the line when they take shots.
On to the Wings, where scoring is the name of the game. Things here are mainly dominated in RPEF by guys drafted from last year, and Dwayne should be down dominating all PGs instead of Wings, but beyond that, the top 5 of James, Wade, Howard, Anthony and Deng look mighty nice. The top two for EFT% are Wright and Cook. When these guys shoot, the ball is going through the hoop, at least that is the early view of them.
Last we come to the guys that run the show. As is evident by how important the PG position is, how many there have been drafted. Babosa leads the pack (well Wade actually does) with Livingston, Harris and Calderon rounding out the top 4. To give some comparison though, Bibby even being used wrong this year still comes in with a 16.45 RPEF. Unless some of these guys really improve, PG will continue to be one of the most coveted draftees. Calderon looks tastee though with his extremely high EFT%
Be on the lookout for when we go over these guys at the end of the season to see if they progress, regress, or just tread water.
PEACE!
Points per shot is just that, total points from FGs and 3pointers divided by FGA. Ball in players hand is the same but it also looks at FT’s too, basically it comes down to, every time a person tries to score, this is their average per attempt. The guys that have the highest BihP are the guys you want to have the ball in one position game with time running out. I looked at the PER formula by John Hollinger, and realized while I would not mind programming it, doing it in excel would blow chunks. So I looked at combining a basic version of his idea with the outdated ( (ppg+R+A+B+S-TO) to come up with a rating that not only rewarded a good EFT, but also penalized people from missing fee points. I’m sure Shaq hates this formula that I developed. While it really hurt his points portion of the formula, his nonstop rebounding and the best assist per game rate of any of the Centers has him as one of the best Centers in the game. Now to validate the formula I looked at historical data of some of the best players to ever play the game and then further tweaked the formula to reward steals a tad more than blocks as a block doesn’t automatically cause a turnover. At no point was the PEF copied or tweaked, just a few ideas about what he has done. That said assists are going even more down in value that they have now.
Be on the lookout for when we go over these guys at the end of the season to see if they progress, regress, or just tread water.
PEACE!
Points per shot is just that, total points from FGs and 3pointers divided by FGA. Ball in players hand is the same but it also looks at FT’s too, basically it comes down to, every time a person tries to score, this is their average per attempt. The guys that have the highest BihP are the guys you want to have the ball in one position game with time running out. I looked at the PER formula by John Hollinger, and realized while I would not mind programming it, doing it in excel would blow chunks. So I looked at combining a basic version of his idea with the outdated ( (ppg+R+A+B+S-TO) to come up with a rating that not only rewarded a good EFT, but also penalized people from missing fee points. I’m sure Shaq hates this formula that I developed. While it really hurt his points portion of the formula, his nonstop rebounding and the best assist per game rate of any of the Centers has him as one of the best Centers in the game. Now to validate the formula I looked at historical data of some of the best players to ever play the game and then further tweaked the formula to reward steals a tad more than blocks as a block doesn’t automatically cause a turnover. At no point was the PEF copied or tweaked, just a few ideas about what he has done. That said assists are going even more down in value that they have now.
