Post by frangie on Jul 10, 2020 14:11:44 GMT -8
We are now a little over halfway into the season and just one sim away from the frenzy! Seems like an appropriate time to play CONTENDER or PRETENDER!
Below I list the teams with a positive point differential in order of record and comment on each team, ending with a verdict on if the team is a true contender or not. Let’s get to it.
1. Kings (39-9)
Sacramento ranks 1st in the NBA in point differential per game (+13.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #10 offense (1.07 PPS) and #1 defense (0.97 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 3rd-best rebounding differential per game (+4.8) and the 9th-best turnover differential per game (+1.4). They basically check every box you want from a team. Kobe being A+ defense at SG is key in making their defense so good – almost every team relies on their SG as a #1 or #2 option. In the playoffs, expect teams to try to adjust away from that if they can.
Verdict: Contender
2. Knicks (37-13)
New York ranks 3rd in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #23 offense (1.03 PPS) and #2 defense (0.99 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 1st-best rebounding differential per game (+6.5) and the 7th-best turnover differential per game (+1.6). Obviously the season-long stats don’t totally matter given the number of trades (trading Shaq hurts rebounding but helps turnovers for example). Still Skillz seems to win every trade and has his team in a great position.
Verdict: Contender
3. Hornets (37-15)
New Orleans ranks 2nd in the NBA in point differential per game (+10.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #1 offense (1.10 PPS) and #9 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 13th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.8) and the 1st-best turnover differential per game (+2.9). Being #1 in shooting efficiency as well as turnovers makes them easily the best offense in the league!
Verdict: Contender
4. Suns (31-15)
Phoenix ranks 5th in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.0) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #12 offense (1.06 PPS) and #4 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 9th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.9) and the 2nd-best turnover differential per game (+2.5). The Manu trade should increase the offensive efficiency as well, which is currently their biggest weakness.
Verdict: Contender
5. Wizards (33-17)
Washington ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.8) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #6 offense (1.08 PPS) and #12 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 8th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.2) and the 16th-best turnover differential per game (0.0). There is just something about this team that doesn’t quite sit right with me – maybe it is the lack of an elite (top-5) strength as a team.
Verdict: Pretender
6. Pistons (27-16)
Detroit ranks 4th in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #17 offense (1.05 PPS) and #5 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 5th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.1) and the 4th-best turnover differential per game (+1.9). This team is great at winning the turnover battle, and when you have Duncan anchoring a defense, that can help you overcome a mediocre offense. Plus, I’m sure these numbers look even better since they acquired Timmy.
Verdict: Contender
7. Timberwolves (30-19)
Minnesota ranks 9th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.5) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #14 offense (1.06 PPS) and #11 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 11th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.1) and the 3rd-best turnover differential per game (+2.1). This is a very solid team, but I don’t see them withstanding the top teams in a 7-game series without a top-10 offense or defense.
Verdict: Pretender
8. Cavaliers (29-19)
Cleveland ranks 12th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #19 offense (1.04 PPS) and #10 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 2nd-best rebounding differential per game (+4.9) and the 20th-best turnover differential per game (-0.4). I’m legitimately stunned that they don’t have a better offense with KVH and Dirk. Those two and KG are an amazing trio. Maybe they should have hung onto Parker?
Verdict: Pretender
9. 76ers (27-18)
Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #3 offense (1.09 PPS) and #17 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 6th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.8) and the 19th-best turnover differential per game (-0.3). Steve just sent out Jamison so you have to think he felt this team wasn’t truly competing for a title.
Verdict: Pretender
10. Mavericks (30-21)
Dallas ranks 8th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #22 offense (1.03 PPS) and #3 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 7th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.4) and the 10th-best turnover differential per game (+1.3). The point differential is good but I don’t think you can go far in the playoffs with a below average offense.
Verdict: Pretender
11. Jazz (25-18)
Utah ranks 14th in the NBA in point differential per game (+1.7) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #13 offense (1.06 PPS) and #16 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 12th-best rebounding differential per game (+1.8) and the 17th-best turnover differential per game (-0.2). They are what they are – a slightly above average team.
Verdict: Pretender
12. Clippers (25-19)
LAC ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.8) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #2 offense (1.10 PPS) and #7 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 14th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.7) and the 14th-best turnover differential per game (+0.3). I really want to call my team a contender because since the Gil/JJ trade we have been over +6 PD, and we’re 8-1 with the starting 5 since the Shaq deal, but it is too soon to give us that designation.
Verdict: Pretender
13. Heat (26-20)
Miami ranks 11th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #4 offense (1.09 PPS) and #25 defense (1.08 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 4th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.5) and the 15th-best turnover differential per game (+0.1). It will be really hard to compete in the playoffs with a defense like that.
Verdict: Pretender
14. Lakers (29-25)
LAL ranks 13th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #8 offense (1.07 PPS) and #8 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 26th-best rebounding differential per game (-4.4) and the 4th-best turnover differential per game (+1.9). How the mighty have fallen! This team needs to learn how to box out.
Verdict: Pretender
15. Rockets (28-25)
Houston ranks 15th in the NBA in point differential per game (+1.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #21 offense (1.03 PPS) and #15 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 10th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.5) and the 12th-best turnover differential per game (+0.7). Parker and Vince just don’t have enough help.
Verdict: Pretender
16. Magic (23-25)
Orlando ranks 16th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.6) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #16 offense (1.06 PPS) and #21 defense (1.06 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 23rd-best rebounding differential per game (-3.6) and the 6th-best turnover differential per game (+1.7). A testament to AI that they are around .500. Trap must be disappointed!
Verdict: Pretender
17. Bucks (22-24)
Milwaukee ranks 17th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #5 offense (1.08 PPS) and #22 defense (1.08 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 21st-best rebounding differential per game (-2.9) and the 11th-best turnover differential per game (+1.0). Chipper is gonna do all he can to get these boys in the playoffs!
Verdict: Pretender
Below I list the teams with a positive point differential in order of record and comment on each team, ending with a verdict on if the team is a true contender or not. Let’s get to it.
1. Kings (39-9)
Sacramento ranks 1st in the NBA in point differential per game (+13.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #10 offense (1.07 PPS) and #1 defense (0.97 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 3rd-best rebounding differential per game (+4.8) and the 9th-best turnover differential per game (+1.4). They basically check every box you want from a team. Kobe being A+ defense at SG is key in making their defense so good – almost every team relies on their SG as a #1 or #2 option. In the playoffs, expect teams to try to adjust away from that if they can.
Verdict: Contender
2. Knicks (37-13)
New York ranks 3rd in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #23 offense (1.03 PPS) and #2 defense (0.99 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 1st-best rebounding differential per game (+6.5) and the 7th-best turnover differential per game (+1.6). Obviously the season-long stats don’t totally matter given the number of trades (trading Shaq hurts rebounding but helps turnovers for example). Still Skillz seems to win every trade and has his team in a great position.
Verdict: Contender
3. Hornets (37-15)
New Orleans ranks 2nd in the NBA in point differential per game (+10.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #1 offense (1.10 PPS) and #9 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 13th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.8) and the 1st-best turnover differential per game (+2.9). Being #1 in shooting efficiency as well as turnovers makes them easily the best offense in the league!
Verdict: Contender
4. Suns (31-15)
Phoenix ranks 5th in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.0) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #12 offense (1.06 PPS) and #4 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 9th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.9) and the 2nd-best turnover differential per game (+2.5). The Manu trade should increase the offensive efficiency as well, which is currently their biggest weakness.
Verdict: Contender
5. Wizards (33-17)
Washington ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.8) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #6 offense (1.08 PPS) and #12 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 8th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.2) and the 16th-best turnover differential per game (0.0). There is just something about this team that doesn’t quite sit right with me – maybe it is the lack of an elite (top-5) strength as a team.
Verdict: Pretender
6. Pistons (27-16)
Detroit ranks 4th in the NBA in point differential per game (+8.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #17 offense (1.05 PPS) and #5 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 5th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.1) and the 4th-best turnover differential per game (+1.9). This team is great at winning the turnover battle, and when you have Duncan anchoring a defense, that can help you overcome a mediocre offense. Plus, I’m sure these numbers look even better since they acquired Timmy.
Verdict: Contender
7. Timberwolves (30-19)
Minnesota ranks 9th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.5) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #14 offense (1.06 PPS) and #11 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 11th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.1) and the 3rd-best turnover differential per game (+2.1). This is a very solid team, but I don’t see them withstanding the top teams in a 7-game series without a top-10 offense or defense.
Verdict: Pretender
8. Cavaliers (29-19)
Cleveland ranks 12th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #19 offense (1.04 PPS) and #10 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 2nd-best rebounding differential per game (+4.9) and the 20th-best turnover differential per game (-0.4). I’m legitimately stunned that they don’t have a better offense with KVH and Dirk. Those two and KG are an amazing trio. Maybe they should have hung onto Parker?
Verdict: Pretender
9. 76ers (27-18)
Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #3 offense (1.09 PPS) and #17 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 6th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.8) and the 19th-best turnover differential per game (-0.3). Steve just sent out Jamison so you have to think he felt this team wasn’t truly competing for a title.
Verdict: Pretender
10. Mavericks (30-21)
Dallas ranks 8th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #22 offense (1.03 PPS) and #3 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 7th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.4) and the 10th-best turnover differential per game (+1.3). The point differential is good but I don’t think you can go far in the playoffs with a below average offense.
Verdict: Pretender
11. Jazz (25-18)
Utah ranks 14th in the NBA in point differential per game (+1.7) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #13 offense (1.06 PPS) and #16 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 12th-best rebounding differential per game (+1.8) and the 17th-best turnover differential per game (-0.2). They are what they are – a slightly above average team.
Verdict: Pretender
12. Clippers (25-19)
LAC ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.8) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #2 offense (1.10 PPS) and #7 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 14th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.7) and the 14th-best turnover differential per game (+0.3). I really want to call my team a contender because since the Gil/JJ trade we have been over +6 PD, and we’re 8-1 with the starting 5 since the Shaq deal, but it is too soon to give us that designation.
Verdict: Pretender
13. Heat (26-20)
Miami ranks 11th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #4 offense (1.09 PPS) and #25 defense (1.08 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 4th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.5) and the 15th-best turnover differential per game (+0.1). It will be really hard to compete in the playoffs with a defense like that.
Verdict: Pretender
14. Lakers (29-25)
LAL ranks 13th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #8 offense (1.07 PPS) and #8 defense (1.04 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 26th-best rebounding differential per game (-4.4) and the 4th-best turnover differential per game (+1.9). How the mighty have fallen! This team needs to learn how to box out.
Verdict: Pretender
15. Rockets (28-25)
Houston ranks 15th in the NBA in point differential per game (+1.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #21 offense (1.03 PPS) and #15 defense (1.05 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 10th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.5) and the 12th-best turnover differential per game (+0.7). Parker and Vince just don’t have enough help.
Verdict: Pretender
16. Magic (23-25)
Orlando ranks 16th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.6) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #16 offense (1.06 PPS) and #21 defense (1.06 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 23rd-best rebounding differential per game (-3.6) and the 6th-best turnover differential per game (+1.7). A testament to AI that they are around .500. Trap must be disappointed!
Verdict: Pretender
17. Bucks (22-24)
Milwaukee ranks 17th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #5 offense (1.08 PPS) and #22 defense (1.08 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 21st-best rebounding differential per game (-2.9) and the 11th-best turnover differential per game (+1.0). Chipper is gonna do all he can to get these boys in the playoffs!
Verdict: Pretender
