Post by frangie on May 10, 2020 20:34:54 GMT -8
80 days into the season, I figured it was time for an update to the predictions! My original predictions were based mostly on player ratings and some early season results. These are based purely on team efficiency, rebounding, and turnover margin metrics – with a few extra considerations. I also considered trades made during the season, injuries, or a particularly road/home heavy schedule.
East
1. Knicks (60-22) Despite being third in the East right now, I still predict New York to end up atop the East. They’ve got the #1 offense and #7 defense in the league by efficiency, plus rank 5th in rebounding margin and 7th in turnover differential. That’s BEFORE adding Hakeem!
2. Nets (59-23) New Jersey is just one game behind NYK in my predicted final standings, jumping up from my prediction of #4 on day 15. 59 wins is a lot to get to, but they have a bunch of home games left and they are a stellar 21-2 at home so far. Their offensive efficiency is average, but they have a top 10 defense and are #1 in the league in generating extra shots compared to their opponent. How do they do it? They are second in rebounds and tenth in turnover margin.
3. Hornets (56-26) Surprise! I’ve still got NO third in the East, and I am projecting the exact same record. This is a great team – third in offense, sixth in defense, and third in rebounding. They are just 12th in turnover margin, but everything else makes up for it. They still seem a move away from making the finals though…
4. Bulls (55-27) Up from 5th in my projections at the beginning of the season, Chicago actually is the #1 seed in the East right now. It is a little bit of a mirage as their scoring margin is not as good as the record suggests. They’ve got a good offense (#6 efficiency) but a middling defense. They are great at having more possessions than their opponents by limiting their own turnovers and getting steals (#2 in turnover differential). They play a little more on the road the rest of the way too.
5. Pacers (51-31) This ranking may be too high after all of Indiana’s trades, but the teams beneath them have injuries or road heavy schedules that will make it difficult to catch Indy. The stats show them as the #5 defense, but that was with Hakeem… Still, this could be way off.
6. Cavs (50-32) Another team I’ve got the exact same prediction for! Grant Hill is down for a couple weeks, but they can still get wins as they’ve got plenty of scoring between KVH, LJ, and KG. This team ranks second in offense according to my metrics, but just 25th in defense. First in rebounds, but 20th in turnover margin. So basically, they’ve taken on the identity of LJ. Cleveland Rocks…
7. Pistons (48-34) Detroit is out of the playoffs if the season ended today, but luckily for them they have got another 40 days. They have a strong defense (ninth) but just an average offense, efficiency wise. Their rebounding and turnover margin are slightly above average. This is a team that would have better team stats if they were out West… I think they go on a run and make the playoffs.
8. Raptors (47-35) Toronto jumps up from my original predictions where I had them with 42 wins and out of the playoffs. They’ve got the 9th best offense but a poor defense (22nd) and bad rebounding (23rd) but they have the number 1 turnover differential in the league and that keeps them afloat in the tough East! They have a road heavy schedule the rest of the way, but benefit from Kidd going down and then being traded to the Heat.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Knicks>Raptors, Nets>Pistons, Hornets>Cavs, Bulls>Pacers
ECSF: Knicks>Bulls, Hornets>Nets
ECF: Knicks>Hornets
The playoffs in the East are going to be awesome. Round 1 will have two of the better series in the whole playoffs, with the 3/6 and 4/5 containing teams that could quite conceivably win the championship if things break right. I’m sticking with my Knicks over Hornets prediction for now! The Knicks are the heavy public favorite, but I think my Hornets over Nets pick in round 2 may be a surprise. Their team is just so good on both ends. Seeding could play a huge role throughout, with so many potential game 7s especially later on.
West
1. Jazz (62-20) Utah was my pick to come out of the West, and now I’ve got them ranked accordingly. They rank fifth in my offensive efficiency metric and third in the defensive efficiency metric. That makes them the only team to rank in the top 5 of each.
2. Grizzlies (54-28) Memphis has had a very solid season, and most of that is owed to having the #2 defensive efficiency team in the whole league. Playing in the West helps, but either way it is still impressive. They are middling at everything else, so it will be interesting to see if they make a move to try to increase their chances of making a finals run.
3. Clippers (53-29) We’re fourth in defensive efficiency and in turnover margin. We’ve done plenty of experimenting with DC’s at the expense of some regular season wins. Hope it pays off!
4. Nuggets (49-33) Man it just seems like Denver should be better! How is a team with Shaq 18th in offensive efficiency? So many dunks. Only 8th in rebounding… #1 in defense though. The top 4 defenses are the best 4 teams in the West, must have something to do with the bottom of the conference…
5. T-Wolves (47-35) Minnesota was projected to win 46 games and finish fifth when I did this before. Not much has changed in 65 days. They are between 10th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency as well as in turnover and rebounding differentials. So slightly above average. I wonder how they would do in the East…
6. Warriors (45-37) This is a squad that has benefited greatly from playing in the Pacific. Golden State does a good job limiting turnovers but are pretty average to below average otherwise. I’m sure they’d rather have a lotto pick, but such is life. Good karma at least, maybe the FBB gods will reward that?
7. Kings (41-41) Another team from the Pacific! I’m hoping they can get to .500 so we can be less pathetic of a division. Their defense is actually solid numbers wise, probably just because of their schedule though...
8. Mavs (30-52) They probably don’t want to be here and would rather have a lotto pick than be Utah’s roadkill. But hey! K-Mart for Bonzi is an upgrade.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Jazz>Mavs, Grizz>Kings, Clips>Warriors, Nuggs>TWolves
WCSF: Jazz>Nuggs, Clips>Grizz
WCF: Jazz>Clips
The 1/8 and 2/7 matchups should not go beyond 5 games, and probably should be sweeps. The 3/6 should be boring as well. The 4/5 could get a little interesting, but a lot of these games will end on on NBATV with the East’s first round on TNT. The second round should pick up a lot though, especially with the 2/3 series. I’d expect Utah to handle biz in the 1/4 matchup, but upsets do happen! I’d be a homer to pick us to beat the Jazz right now, have to give them the edge.
Finals Prediction: Knicks over Jazz in 5. This is just a bad matchup for Utah I feel. MJ vs Houston isn’t fair, MJ will go off while also limiting H20. Hakeem can battle with D Rob. Nash>Jackson. Well done Skillz!
Race to the Bottom (lotto projection)
1. Orlando (16-66) No way Break gets rewarded with the #1, right?
2. LA Lakers (17-65) Pacific could get stronger.
3. Phoenix (19-63) Third worst? Not if atScott can help it (sorry if I got name wrong)
4. Portland (24-58) Didn’t give away enough of his players.
5. Milwaukee (27-55) Hey, same exact prediction I had last time! Give me Sheed if you ever come back Steve.
6. San Antonio (28-54) Make Bonzi top option to get a better pick.
7. Seattle (28-54) The fans aren’t turning out, is OKC in the future?
8. Washington (29-53) I like Jah. Defender of white chocolate.
9. Houston (29-53) Their GM is praying they fall out of the playoffs. Trade me Bo!
10. Atlanta (34-48) I forget this team exists sometimes. Not atrocious but not good.
11. Phili (40-42) Kidd injury was brutal.
12. Miami (43-39) Kidd injury was a great opportunity.
13. Boston (45-37) Quietly a very solid team.
East
1. Knicks (60-22) Despite being third in the East right now, I still predict New York to end up atop the East. They’ve got the #1 offense and #7 defense in the league by efficiency, plus rank 5th in rebounding margin and 7th in turnover differential. That’s BEFORE adding Hakeem!
2. Nets (59-23) New Jersey is just one game behind NYK in my predicted final standings, jumping up from my prediction of #4 on day 15. 59 wins is a lot to get to, but they have a bunch of home games left and they are a stellar 21-2 at home so far. Their offensive efficiency is average, but they have a top 10 defense and are #1 in the league in generating extra shots compared to their opponent. How do they do it? They are second in rebounds and tenth in turnover margin.
3. Hornets (56-26) Surprise! I’ve still got NO third in the East, and I am projecting the exact same record. This is a great team – third in offense, sixth in defense, and third in rebounding. They are just 12th in turnover margin, but everything else makes up for it. They still seem a move away from making the finals though…
4. Bulls (55-27) Up from 5th in my projections at the beginning of the season, Chicago actually is the #1 seed in the East right now. It is a little bit of a mirage as their scoring margin is not as good as the record suggests. They’ve got a good offense (#6 efficiency) but a middling defense. They are great at having more possessions than their opponents by limiting their own turnovers and getting steals (#2 in turnover differential). They play a little more on the road the rest of the way too.
5. Pacers (51-31) This ranking may be too high after all of Indiana’s trades, but the teams beneath them have injuries or road heavy schedules that will make it difficult to catch Indy. The stats show them as the #5 defense, but that was with Hakeem… Still, this could be way off.
6. Cavs (50-32) Another team I’ve got the exact same prediction for! Grant Hill is down for a couple weeks, but they can still get wins as they’ve got plenty of scoring between KVH, LJ, and KG. This team ranks second in offense according to my metrics, but just 25th in defense. First in rebounds, but 20th in turnover margin. So basically, they’ve taken on the identity of LJ. Cleveland Rocks…
7. Pistons (48-34) Detroit is out of the playoffs if the season ended today, but luckily for them they have got another 40 days. They have a strong defense (ninth) but just an average offense, efficiency wise. Their rebounding and turnover margin are slightly above average. This is a team that would have better team stats if they were out West… I think they go on a run and make the playoffs.
8. Raptors (47-35) Toronto jumps up from my original predictions where I had them with 42 wins and out of the playoffs. They’ve got the 9th best offense but a poor defense (22nd) and bad rebounding (23rd) but they have the number 1 turnover differential in the league and that keeps them afloat in the tough East! They have a road heavy schedule the rest of the way, but benefit from Kidd going down and then being traded to the Heat.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Knicks>Raptors, Nets>Pistons, Hornets>Cavs, Bulls>Pacers
ECSF: Knicks>Bulls, Hornets>Nets
ECF: Knicks>Hornets
The playoffs in the East are going to be awesome. Round 1 will have two of the better series in the whole playoffs, with the 3/6 and 4/5 containing teams that could quite conceivably win the championship if things break right. I’m sticking with my Knicks over Hornets prediction for now! The Knicks are the heavy public favorite, but I think my Hornets over Nets pick in round 2 may be a surprise. Their team is just so good on both ends. Seeding could play a huge role throughout, with so many potential game 7s especially later on.
West
1. Jazz (62-20) Utah was my pick to come out of the West, and now I’ve got them ranked accordingly. They rank fifth in my offensive efficiency metric and third in the defensive efficiency metric. That makes them the only team to rank in the top 5 of each.
2. Grizzlies (54-28) Memphis has had a very solid season, and most of that is owed to having the #2 defensive efficiency team in the whole league. Playing in the West helps, but either way it is still impressive. They are middling at everything else, so it will be interesting to see if they make a move to try to increase their chances of making a finals run.
3. Clippers (53-29) We’re fourth in defensive efficiency and in turnover margin. We’ve done plenty of experimenting with DC’s at the expense of some regular season wins. Hope it pays off!
4. Nuggets (49-33) Man it just seems like Denver should be better! How is a team with Shaq 18th in offensive efficiency? So many dunks. Only 8th in rebounding… #1 in defense though. The top 4 defenses are the best 4 teams in the West, must have something to do with the bottom of the conference…
5. T-Wolves (47-35) Minnesota was projected to win 46 games and finish fifth when I did this before. Not much has changed in 65 days. They are between 10th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency as well as in turnover and rebounding differentials. So slightly above average. I wonder how they would do in the East…
6. Warriors (45-37) This is a squad that has benefited greatly from playing in the Pacific. Golden State does a good job limiting turnovers but are pretty average to below average otherwise. I’m sure they’d rather have a lotto pick, but such is life. Good karma at least, maybe the FBB gods will reward that?
7. Kings (41-41) Another team from the Pacific! I’m hoping they can get to .500 so we can be less pathetic of a division. Their defense is actually solid numbers wise, probably just because of their schedule though...
8. Mavs (30-52) They probably don’t want to be here and would rather have a lotto pick than be Utah’s roadkill. But hey! K-Mart for Bonzi is an upgrade.
Playoff Predictions:
Round 1: Jazz>Mavs, Grizz>Kings, Clips>Warriors, Nuggs>TWolves
WCSF: Jazz>Nuggs, Clips>Grizz
WCF: Jazz>Clips
The 1/8 and 2/7 matchups should not go beyond 5 games, and probably should be sweeps. The 3/6 should be boring as well. The 4/5 could get a little interesting, but a lot of these games will end on on NBATV with the East’s first round on TNT. The second round should pick up a lot though, especially with the 2/3 series. I’d expect Utah to handle biz in the 1/4 matchup, but upsets do happen! I’d be a homer to pick us to beat the Jazz right now, have to give them the edge.
Finals Prediction: Knicks over Jazz in 5. This is just a bad matchup for Utah I feel. MJ vs Houston isn’t fair, MJ will go off while also limiting H20. Hakeem can battle with D Rob. Nash>Jackson. Well done Skillz!
Race to the Bottom (lotto projection)
1. Orlando (16-66) No way Break gets rewarded with the #1, right?
2. LA Lakers (17-65) Pacific could get stronger.
3. Phoenix (19-63) Third worst? Not if atScott can help it (sorry if I got name wrong)
4. Portland (24-58) Didn’t give away enough of his players.
5. Milwaukee (27-55) Hey, same exact prediction I had last time! Give me Sheed if you ever come back Steve.
6. San Antonio (28-54) Make Bonzi top option to get a better pick.
7. Seattle (28-54) The fans aren’t turning out, is OKC in the future?
8. Washington (29-53) I like Jah. Defender of white chocolate.
9. Houston (29-53) Their GM is praying they fall out of the playoffs. Trade me Bo!
10. Atlanta (34-48) I forget this team exists sometimes. Not atrocious but not good.
11. Phili (40-42) Kidd injury was brutal.
12. Miami (43-39) Kidd injury was a great opportunity.
13. Boston (45-37) Quietly a very solid team.
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