Post by frangie on May 14, 2020 17:10:46 GMT -8
Preamble
Here we stand, on the precipice of our version of the elite 8 for the 2000/2001 season. First, let’s pour one out for the teams who had to lose in order for us to get here…
In particular, the Cavs and Bulls are the toughest casualties. They had tough matchups in round 1 out East. Strong regular seasons ended up not mattering all that much for them unfortunately. Interestingly, Chicago was a team that seemed to outplay their talent in the regular season. Cleveland was the opposite – highly talented but not the smoothest positional fits and couldn’t get stops. Both would have had a great chance of being in the conference semi’s were they in the Western conference.
Now that’s out of the way, we can talk about the eight remaining teams. Truly the elite teams in the league. Wait what? The Warriors are in this? RIP to the Grizz. Exposed!
Man, I am going to look bad if we don’t advance. Two straight rounds against under .500 teams. Can’t make this up! Alright, let’s get to the previews.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
KNICKS vs HORNETS
Round 1 Results:
New York easily dispatched of the Miami Heat, with a sweep that had a couple extremely lopsided wins. New Orleans was just as impressive, taking out a talented Cleveland team in 5 games.
Regular Season Results:
The Hornets actually won the season series 2-1, splitting at home and stealing one on the road. Oddly, the Knicks one win was without both MJ and Mashburn. One of the losses was pre-Hakeem as well, but all games were post Nash and Kidd trades. New Orleans actually won the rebounding battle in each game and won the turnover battle in two of the three.
Tale of the Tape
Knicks Tale of the Tape Hornets
1.08 Points per Shot 1.05
1 Ranking 4
0.99 Points Allowed/Shot 0.98
8 Ranking 5
1.7 Turnover Differential 0.3
4 Ranking 11
3.2 Rebound Differential 5.0
6 Ranking 3
12.3 Points Diff/Game 8.2
1 Ranking 5
When the Knicks have the ball:
The Knicks have had the most efficient offense in the league by a wide margin this season. That is driven by what is easily the best backcourt in the league, the incredible duo of MJ and Steve Nash. Despite all that scoring and finding good shots, they also have a great turnover differential. They will be trying to score on the best statistical defense in the Eastern conference (and therefore probably would be the #1 if they were in the West). That defense is anchored by Alonzo Mourning, whose 3.8 blocks per game lead the league by a wide margin. In fact, no one else on the team gets a half block per game, but they do have five guys averaging at least one steal per game.
In each of their three matchups this season, the Knicks scored between 102 and 107 points per game – much lower than their season average of 114, but a little higher than the Hornets allowed average of 98. Nash in particular was effective each game. The Hornets need to continue this trend to compete in this series.
When the Hornets have the ball:
On the other side of the ball, the Hornets had a top 5 offense to go with their strong defense. That balance lead them to being top 5 in point differential on the year, third in the East. Malone and Zo have shot about 50% from the floor combined on a high volume. (Nash and MJ were close to this feat as well, but also shoot 3’s, so they are actually even more impressive). The Knicks rank “just” 8th in defense this season, but only 1/3 of that was with Hakeem.
In the three regular season games where these teams squared off, the Hornets scored 110, 112, and 92. Obviously, scoring 92 is going to be a loss just about every time this series. Mourning had a huge game in the matchup pre-Hakeem, but was pretty limited in the two games that Hakeem played in. Something to monitor!
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
Already touched on this, but the clearest edge the Hornets have is on the boards. That has shown in the season stats as well as in their three games. The turnover battle favors the Knicks over the season, but was pretty even in the head to head matchups.
Prediction – NYK in 6
Let’s not overthink this just because New Orleans took two out of three. The Knicks have been the better team all season. Plus, while the Hornets were top five in offense and defense, the difference between the points allowed per shot by the Knicks in 8th and the Hornets in 5th is pretty small – much less than the difference between their offensive points per shot. With Hakeem, the Knicks can match up a little easier and mitigate the strengths of NO (Mourning and rebounding). I expect NO to put up a fight but not push it to 7.
NETS vs PISTONS
Round 1 Results:
I guess the Pistons actually had a more impressive performance in round 1? They beat the Bulls in 6, while it took the Pistons an equal number of games to knock out the intentionally weakened Pacers.
Regular Season Results:
The Nets won three out of the four regular season matchups between these two squads. Both games with Webber were Nets wins.
Tale of the Tape
Pistons Tale of the Tape Nets
1.02 Points per Shot 1.02
17 Ranking 16
1.00 Points Allowed/Shot 0.99
10 Ranking 6
0.1 Turnover Differential 1.2
12 Ranking 8
2.5 Rebound Differential 6.3
7 Ranking 2
3.0 Points Diff/Game 8.5
11 Ranking 4
When the Nets have the ball:
The Nets were just an average offensive team this season by a points per shot metric. However, they are an excellent rebounding team and those second chance points lead to them actually being 8th in points per game as a team. Dikembe, Rice, and Ward are the three main threats and fit together very well, all averaging upwards of 18 ppg. The Pistons are a solid defensive team especially with Webber. Interestingly, both Webber and Divac average 1.5 blocks and 1 steal per game. Detroit ranks 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and are a good rebounding team themselves. If they can limit possessions to one shot, they will do well defensively.
The Nets had varying level of offensive success against the Pistons this season, scoring 120, 118, 106, and 100. That indicates there could be wild swings in this series for the Nets offensively.
When the Pistons have the ball:
The Pistons are actually kind of like a little bit worse version of the Nets. They are also below average offensively but a good rebounding team, and those second chance points are what allows them to keep up offensively. Unfortunately for them, the Nets have the sixth best defense in the league. Wallace and Mutombo anchor the defense, as both are over 2 blocks per game.
The Pistons put up 128 with Grant Hill against New Jersey early in the season, but have failed to crack 100 since. That isn’t a good sign!
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
The Pistons are pretty average in terms of turnovers, whereas the Nets are strong. The Pistons are a strong rebounding team, whereas the Nets are excellent. Advantage Nets.
Prediction – NJ in 5
The Pistons had a good first round, but New Jersey is just a better team. They have a superior point differential, regular season record, etc. As you may have noticed, they rank above Detroit in each of the five categories shown above.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
NUGGETS vs JAZZ
Round 1 Results:
Both of these teams swept their opponent in the opening playoff round. Denver’s sweep was a little more impressive as their opposition was over .500 (unlike the Rockets). Shaq was absolutely dominant. He’d been ragged on a little as not the top 3 guy he was drafted as, but the haters are quiet at least for now after what he did to poor Minnesota.
Regular Season Results:
These squads split the four-game series during the regular season at two apiece. Allan Houston missed two of those games, and the Jazz managed to split those anyway…
Tale of the Tape
Nuggets Tale of the Tape Jazz
1.02 Points per Shot 1.06
15 Ranking 3
0.96 Points Allowed/Shot 0.98
2 Ranking 4
-0.3 Turnover Differential 1.4
18 Ranking 6
0.8 Rebound Differential 4.4
12 Ranking 4
4.3 Points Diff/Game 11.7
10 Ranking 2
When the Jazz have the ball:
The Jazz were an excellent offensive team, led by the electric Allan Houston aka H20 who lit up the league all season long. They have a system that clearly works, as they rock the third best offensive efficiency in the league. They get o-boards when they miss too, that’s a tough combo to stop. Steal of the draft Bobby Jackson has been a revelation offensively, and the Big Dog gives them some punch too. Let’s not forget about DRob putting up 15 per game as a non-option.
Not to be outdone, Shaq has led the Nuggets to the second-best defense in the league! He has a herculean task in front of him to limit Utah and also clear the boards, but he is a herculean sized man…
Denver actually had success holding Utah to low point totals in the regular season – 90, 94, 102, and 124. None of those games had both Houston and Big Dog though…
When the Nuggets have the ball:
Stockton and Pippen help obviously, but the season long numbers are not pretty here for the Nuggets. Just 15th in offensive efficiency despite playing in the West. They are going to need big point outputs to keep up with Utah. Shaq can’t do it all alone. Pippen and Dyess have to step up and score, and Stockton needs to have efficient games too. It worked in the first round as they fed Shaq and he dropped 40 almost every game. Utah was fourth in defense so it won’t be easy to score on them, and they’ve got the right guy to guard Shaq in D-Rob.
In the regular season, the Nuggets scored 94, 95, 96, and 102 points. That doesn’t seem like it will cut it against a full strength Utah team. Shaq just isn’t able to dominate DRob, as he really only had one big game out of four against him this season.
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
Despite Shaq, the rebound advantage lies solidly with Utah. Because of Shaq, the turnover advantage lies solidly with Utah. Expect the Jazz to get more shots up this series.
Prediction – Utah in 5
Prior to the Stockton/Pippen deal, I did not think Denver was very good. After the first round, I was thining this could be a series. After digging into it, I no longer feel that way. The Jazz just match up well with Nuggs and are the better team, top to bottom. Their top scorer being efficient, hitting threes and free throws, without having a bunch of turnovers is a big reason for that!
WARRIORS vs CLIPPERS
Since this involves the team I am the assistant GM for, I won’t say a ton. Obviously, we should win, though we split the season series 2-2. I think we win it in four or five.
Tale of the Tape
Warriors Tale of the Tape Clippers
1.01 Points per Shot 1.03
18 Ranking 9
1.03 Points Allowed/Shot 0.97
19 Ranking 3
0.7 Turnover Differential 2.6
10 Ranking 3
-1.2 Rebound Differential 1.7
19 Ranking 9
-0.7 Points Diff/Game 8.8
18 Ranking 3
Here we stand, on the precipice of our version of the elite 8 for the 2000/2001 season. First, let’s pour one out for the teams who had to lose in order for us to get here…
In particular, the Cavs and Bulls are the toughest casualties. They had tough matchups in round 1 out East. Strong regular seasons ended up not mattering all that much for them unfortunately. Interestingly, Chicago was a team that seemed to outplay their talent in the regular season. Cleveland was the opposite – highly talented but not the smoothest positional fits and couldn’t get stops. Both would have had a great chance of being in the conference semi’s were they in the Western conference.
Now that’s out of the way, we can talk about the eight remaining teams. Truly the elite teams in the league. Wait what? The Warriors are in this? RIP to the Grizz. Exposed!
Man, I am going to look bad if we don’t advance. Two straight rounds against under .500 teams. Can’t make this up! Alright, let’s get to the previews.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
KNICKS vs HORNETS
Round 1 Results:
New York easily dispatched of the Miami Heat, with a sweep that had a couple extremely lopsided wins. New Orleans was just as impressive, taking out a talented Cleveland team in 5 games.
Regular Season Results:
The Hornets actually won the season series 2-1, splitting at home and stealing one on the road. Oddly, the Knicks one win was without both MJ and Mashburn. One of the losses was pre-Hakeem as well, but all games were post Nash and Kidd trades. New Orleans actually won the rebounding battle in each game and won the turnover battle in two of the three.
Tale of the Tape
Knicks Tale of the Tape Hornets
1.08 Points per Shot 1.05
1 Ranking 4
0.99 Points Allowed/Shot 0.98
8 Ranking 5
1.7 Turnover Differential 0.3
4 Ranking 11
3.2 Rebound Differential 5.0
6 Ranking 3
12.3 Points Diff/Game 8.2
1 Ranking 5
When the Knicks have the ball:
The Knicks have had the most efficient offense in the league by a wide margin this season. That is driven by what is easily the best backcourt in the league, the incredible duo of MJ and Steve Nash. Despite all that scoring and finding good shots, they also have a great turnover differential. They will be trying to score on the best statistical defense in the Eastern conference (and therefore probably would be the #1 if they were in the West). That defense is anchored by Alonzo Mourning, whose 3.8 blocks per game lead the league by a wide margin. In fact, no one else on the team gets a half block per game, but they do have five guys averaging at least one steal per game.
In each of their three matchups this season, the Knicks scored between 102 and 107 points per game – much lower than their season average of 114, but a little higher than the Hornets allowed average of 98. Nash in particular was effective each game. The Hornets need to continue this trend to compete in this series.
When the Hornets have the ball:
On the other side of the ball, the Hornets had a top 5 offense to go with their strong defense. That balance lead them to being top 5 in point differential on the year, third in the East. Malone and Zo have shot about 50% from the floor combined on a high volume. (Nash and MJ were close to this feat as well, but also shoot 3’s, so they are actually even more impressive). The Knicks rank “just” 8th in defense this season, but only 1/3 of that was with Hakeem.
In the three regular season games where these teams squared off, the Hornets scored 110, 112, and 92. Obviously, scoring 92 is going to be a loss just about every time this series. Mourning had a huge game in the matchup pre-Hakeem, but was pretty limited in the two games that Hakeem played in. Something to monitor!
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
Already touched on this, but the clearest edge the Hornets have is on the boards. That has shown in the season stats as well as in their three games. The turnover battle favors the Knicks over the season, but was pretty even in the head to head matchups.
Prediction – NYK in 6
Let’s not overthink this just because New Orleans took two out of three. The Knicks have been the better team all season. Plus, while the Hornets were top five in offense and defense, the difference between the points allowed per shot by the Knicks in 8th and the Hornets in 5th is pretty small – much less than the difference between their offensive points per shot. With Hakeem, the Knicks can match up a little easier and mitigate the strengths of NO (Mourning and rebounding). I expect NO to put up a fight but not push it to 7.
NETS vs PISTONS
Round 1 Results:
I guess the Pistons actually had a more impressive performance in round 1? They beat the Bulls in 6, while it took the Pistons an equal number of games to knock out the intentionally weakened Pacers.
Regular Season Results:
The Nets won three out of the four regular season matchups between these two squads. Both games with Webber were Nets wins.
Tale of the Tape
Pistons Tale of the Tape Nets
1.02 Points per Shot 1.02
17 Ranking 16
1.00 Points Allowed/Shot 0.99
10 Ranking 6
0.1 Turnover Differential 1.2
12 Ranking 8
2.5 Rebound Differential 6.3
7 Ranking 2
3.0 Points Diff/Game 8.5
11 Ranking 4
When the Nets have the ball:
The Nets were just an average offensive team this season by a points per shot metric. However, they are an excellent rebounding team and those second chance points lead to them actually being 8th in points per game as a team. Dikembe, Rice, and Ward are the three main threats and fit together very well, all averaging upwards of 18 ppg. The Pistons are a solid defensive team especially with Webber. Interestingly, both Webber and Divac average 1.5 blocks and 1 steal per game. Detroit ranks 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and are a good rebounding team themselves. If they can limit possessions to one shot, they will do well defensively.
The Nets had varying level of offensive success against the Pistons this season, scoring 120, 118, 106, and 100. That indicates there could be wild swings in this series for the Nets offensively.
When the Pistons have the ball:
The Pistons are actually kind of like a little bit worse version of the Nets. They are also below average offensively but a good rebounding team, and those second chance points are what allows them to keep up offensively. Unfortunately for them, the Nets have the sixth best defense in the league. Wallace and Mutombo anchor the defense, as both are over 2 blocks per game.
The Pistons put up 128 with Grant Hill against New Jersey early in the season, but have failed to crack 100 since. That isn’t a good sign!
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
The Pistons are pretty average in terms of turnovers, whereas the Nets are strong. The Pistons are a strong rebounding team, whereas the Nets are excellent. Advantage Nets.
Prediction – NJ in 5
The Pistons had a good first round, but New Jersey is just a better team. They have a superior point differential, regular season record, etc. As you may have noticed, they rank above Detroit in each of the five categories shown above.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
NUGGETS vs JAZZ
Round 1 Results:
Both of these teams swept their opponent in the opening playoff round. Denver’s sweep was a little more impressive as their opposition was over .500 (unlike the Rockets). Shaq was absolutely dominant. He’d been ragged on a little as not the top 3 guy he was drafted as, but the haters are quiet at least for now after what he did to poor Minnesota.
Regular Season Results:
These squads split the four-game series during the regular season at two apiece. Allan Houston missed two of those games, and the Jazz managed to split those anyway…
Tale of the Tape
Nuggets Tale of the Tape Jazz
1.02 Points per Shot 1.06
15 Ranking 3
0.96 Points Allowed/Shot 0.98
2 Ranking 4
-0.3 Turnover Differential 1.4
18 Ranking 6
0.8 Rebound Differential 4.4
12 Ranking 4
4.3 Points Diff/Game 11.7
10 Ranking 2
When the Jazz have the ball:
The Jazz were an excellent offensive team, led by the electric Allan Houston aka H20 who lit up the league all season long. They have a system that clearly works, as they rock the third best offensive efficiency in the league. They get o-boards when they miss too, that’s a tough combo to stop. Steal of the draft Bobby Jackson has been a revelation offensively, and the Big Dog gives them some punch too. Let’s not forget about DRob putting up 15 per game as a non-option.
Not to be outdone, Shaq has led the Nuggets to the second-best defense in the league! He has a herculean task in front of him to limit Utah and also clear the boards, but he is a herculean sized man…
Denver actually had success holding Utah to low point totals in the regular season – 90, 94, 102, and 124. None of those games had both Houston and Big Dog though…
When the Nuggets have the ball:
Stockton and Pippen help obviously, but the season long numbers are not pretty here for the Nuggets. Just 15th in offensive efficiency despite playing in the West. They are going to need big point outputs to keep up with Utah. Shaq can’t do it all alone. Pippen and Dyess have to step up and score, and Stockton needs to have efficient games too. It worked in the first round as they fed Shaq and he dropped 40 almost every game. Utah was fourth in defense so it won’t be easy to score on them, and they’ve got the right guy to guard Shaq in D-Rob.
In the regular season, the Nuggets scored 94, 95, 96, and 102 points. That doesn’t seem like it will cut it against a full strength Utah team. Shaq just isn’t able to dominate DRob, as he really only had one big game out of four against him this season.
Rebounding/Turnover Battle
Despite Shaq, the rebound advantage lies solidly with Utah. Because of Shaq, the turnover advantage lies solidly with Utah. Expect the Jazz to get more shots up this series.
Prediction – Utah in 5
Prior to the Stockton/Pippen deal, I did not think Denver was very good. After the first round, I was thining this could be a series. After digging into it, I no longer feel that way. The Jazz just match up well with Nuggs and are the better team, top to bottom. Their top scorer being efficient, hitting threes and free throws, without having a bunch of turnovers is a big reason for that!
WARRIORS vs CLIPPERS
Since this involves the team I am the assistant GM for, I won’t say a ton. Obviously, we should win, though we split the season series 2-2. I think we win it in four or five.
Tale of the Tape
Warriors Tale of the Tape Clippers
1.01 Points per Shot 1.03
18 Ranking 9
1.03 Points Allowed/Shot 0.97
19 Ranking 3
0.7 Turnover Differential 2.6
10 Ranking 3
-1.2 Rebound Differential 1.7
19 Ranking 9
-0.7 Points Diff/Game 8.8
18 Ranking 3
