Post by frangie on May 20, 2020 18:24:34 GMT -8
We’re only 25 days in, but to me it is already time to take stock of the league and try to see where things are headed. What do the results mean so far? I’m here to tell you! The order is meaningless, mostly just the current standings as listed.
Note when I talk about offensive and defensive efficiency and rankings I am basing that on points per shot and addressing extra possessions generated via turnovers and rebounds separately. I estimate shots by taking FGA + FTA/2.2 (and-1s, three point fouls are why I don’t divide by 2). I also use TOM (Turnover margin) and RD (rebound differential), which is turnover advantage per game and rebound advantage per game.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Nets – New Jersey was anointed the favorite in the conference after trading for MJ. As they sit atop the East with a 14-5 record and a sterling +9.5 point differential, the Nets have looked the part to start the season here. Only 8 of their 19 have been at home so far… Their point per shot (PPS) rankings aren’t eye-popping (12th on offense, 7th on defense). But the Nets lead the league in rebound differential (RD) and are 11th in turnover margin (TOM), and those extra possessions compared to their opponents pay off big time. OUTLOOK: Title Contender
2. Cavs – Cleveland has had a strong start to the season at 12-5 (9 home games) with a +7.3 point differential. The team certainly reflects GP more this season – fourth in rebounding, 16th in turnovers, and all the way up to 11th in defensive PPS (aka points allowed per shot). The offense is still very strong at 4th in PPS. The increased balance seems to be helping them. They will be a tough out for sure and are making my 55-win prediction look good! OUTLOOK: Title Contender
3. Heat – Kobe looks pretty good here as his deals have put him tied for 2nd in the east with a nice 12-5 record with just 7 home games so far. Their point differential of +5.6 is good for seventh in the league. Rebounding is a small issue (17th in RD) but their TOM is great at #3 in the whole league. The scary part is their offensive efficiency is only 13th so far – wait until TMac heats up! The defense has improved a bunch since last year as they are now 10th there. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention (Kobe will make it too)
4. Raps – Toronto is 12-8 (11 home games) which makes Game look pretty good. On the other hand, their point differential is just +1.4. Their offensive efficiency and TOM have been good, as they rank seventh in the league in each. On the other hand, the defensive efficiency has been bad at 17th in the league, and the rebounding has been downright bad- Toronto ranks 23rd in RD! OUTLOOK: Playoff team but not that close to contending for a title
5. Pistons – Galo has the boys from Detroit at 11-8 (9 home games). Their +4.9 point differential is 8th in the league. This is a team of very clear strengths and weaknesses. Defensive efficiency? Strength! They are #1 in points allowed per shot. Rebounding? Strength! The Pistons are #2 in RD. Turnovers? Huge Weakness! 27th in TOM. Gross. Offensive efficiency is a slight weakness as well (17th). OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
6. Knicks – Skillz makes so many deals it is very hard to keep up! Their record of 9-7 with half their games at home hides how good the team is. New York ranks 9th in point differential at +4.1. They are pretty much average to good at everything. Their strength so far is points per shot where they rank sixth. Rebounding and defense are above average for the Knicks (8th in RD and 12th in defensive efficiency). The turnover battle has been pretty average as they rank just 14th in TOM. I expect more moves though, especially as they move up the standings. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
7. Celtics – Is Boston any good? They started out red hot but now are just 10-8. Then again, they’ve had twice as many road games as home (12 vs 6) and still sport a point differential in the positives at +2.3, good for 13th in the league. They’ve done a good job winning the turnover battle as their TOM ranks #6. The offensive efficiency is just outside of the top ten at #11 (thanks AI!). Otherwise, the C’s are EXACTLY average, ranking 15th in RD and defensive efficiency. OUTLOOK: Should reset CY.
8. Wizards – Washington is kind of a pleasant surprise at 8-6 (even home/road split). They are sporting a +3 PD which is 11th. With Redd Peja and Terry lighting it up from deep you’d expect their offensive efficiency to be carrying them, but they are actually 19th in that metric. The lack of free throw attempts and poor 2p% hurts the former Bullets (outside the big 3 they can’t put it in the hoop). The defensive efficiency (sixth best) has buoyed them. Ranking 11th in TOM and 14th in RD hasn’t hurt either. OUTLOOK: Should reset CY.
9. Hornets – Well they’ve traded Zo for 7 first round picks so I don’t even know if it is worth talking about them. They did have a +2.9 PD which is twelfth, so they probably could have tried to compete and not let the 8-9 record deter them. OUTLOOK: Well they decided to tank…
10. Magic – Orlando has been a big surprise at just two games below .500 (8-10). Ten of the games have been at home… The point differential is -3.5 (20th in the league). Thus I think we can expect them to fall a little in the standings going forward. The Magii have gotten crushed on the boards (25th in RD) but are average when it comes to the turnover battle (15th in TOM). The offensive and defensive efficiency has been below average (21st and 20th) respectively. Toine and JJ been balling but they need some help! OUTLOOK: Tanking but won’t get to the bottom.
11. Bulls – The rumors are swirling in the windy city as the hometown squad sits at just 6-11. They’ve had nine home games so you can’t blame that for the bad start. Eisley being injured hasn’t helped, but still… The point differential is only -0.5 (17th) which would suggest more like a 0.500 team than a team losing 2/3s of its games. Funny enough, they are #1 in TOM. That’s the only good news though. Chicago ranks 26th and 24th in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively. The rebounding is below average as the Bulls are 19th in RD. OUTLOOK: They could still make the playoffs but don’t have the look or feel of a contender.
12. Pacers – Indiana is trying to lose (4-12), but the tenth best offensive in the league isn’t helping that! The -5.0 PD should keep them well below .500 all season, but it only ranks 22nd so I don’t see them being in range for a top 3 pick before the lotto. They’ve got the tied for second worst record right now so maybe they can prove me wrong. Of note – they are have the worse defense in the league in terms of points allowed per shot. OUTLOOK: Tanking with a chance for a top 5 pick.
13. Hawks – Another tanking team (5-13). They’d be in line for the fourth pick based on the current standings but could fall even further as they have the third worst point differential (-9.5). The offense has been ok at 16th, but they rank 27th in defense and 28th in TOM. That combo should keep them towards the bottom all season long. OUTLOOK: Almost a lock for a top 5 pick, good chance at a top 3 pick
14. 76ers – Phili fans rejoice! The fifth worst record (6-15) in the league is yours! They are average in offense but very bad at everything else! In better news, their -9.8 PD is second worst in the league. That means they could move “ahead” in the race to the bottom. OUTLOOK: Good chance for a top 3 pick
15. Bucks – Not much to be excited about here. Projected for the sixth pick right now (7-16 record), they have the 23rd PD at -7.4. They are pretty much bad at all aspects, though defense isn’t horrible at 16th. Sheed needs some help but they may not pick high enough to get it. They’ve had just 10 of 23 at home s far. OUTLOOK: Definite top 10 pick with a chance at a top 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Clippers – Doing great so far but with an absolute cupcake schedule. #1 in PD, fifth and fourth in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively, sixth in RD, and second in TOM. We will see how these look once we play real teams. OUTLOOK: Title contender (but maybe 1 move away)
2. Jazz – Still the team to beat in the West in my opinion. Utah has the second best point differential in the league despite their 12-6 record. Of some concern is that 14 games have been at home. Then again Houston has missed three games. The offense ranks first, defense ranks fifth. That makes them one of just two teams in the top 5 of each. Their rebounding and turnover differentials are both top 10 as well (7th in RD and 8th in TOM), so this is a very well rounded team. OUTLOOK: Title contender (obviously)
3. Grizzlies – Memphis is looking to make people forget about their embarrassing first round exit last year as they have raced out to a 12-4 start (7 home games). That is supported by a +8.2 point differential which is fourth in the league. How are they doing it? Ranking third in rebounding and offense is a good start. Mix in being eight on defense and you’ve got a good team. The only negative is their turnovers as they rank 24th in the Association. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
4. Kings – Ashes has to be thrilled with the start to the season (13-6, 9 at home). Sacramento is SIXTH in the league in PD at +5.8. The backcourt of Nash and Kobe has worked as well as anyone expected, as they rank second in points per possession. That strong offense is supported by good rebounding (13th), turnover margin (9th), and defensive efficiency (13th). That said, I still think this team needs something else to get over the hump. OUTLOOK: One move away
5. Nuggets- Denver is 10-7 (8 at home) and sports a +3.9 PD. They are a good team. But I still don’t quite buy em’! They’ve had some injuries to Pippen and Shaq but I just don’t think they are at the Jazz/Clips level out West. The rebounding and offense both rank 8th so far. The Nugs rank 10th in TOM (thanks Shaq for cutting those turnovers down!). Surprisingly the defense is down to 18th after being quite good last year. If they can shore that up they will look much better. OUTLOOK: Torn between saying Playoff team or One move away from title contention
6. Spurs – San Antonio sits at just .500 but there are reasons for optimism! Only six of their sixteen games have been at home, and they just traded for Zo! Manu has been awesome! They actually have a negative point differential at -0.9 (18th) but I expect that to change post Zo. They rank well in TOM (fourth) and RD (11th) but low in offensive and defensive efficiency at 22nd and 25th respectively. Zo will shore both of those up! OUTLOOK: Playoff team
7. Timberwolves – The pups are another team running .500 so far (10 of 18 at home). Their +1 PD ranks 15th, but that hides an offense and defense that are both top-10 (9th) in efficiency. So why aren’t they better? One of the worst TOM’s in the league (ranking 26th) and just average rebounding (16th in RD). I like the Stackhouse trade, I think he is an upgrade over Spree. That will help the turnover problem somewhat. OUTLOOK: Playoff team
8. Warriors- Yet another .500 team! Golden State has only played 7 of 18 at home, so they should end up over .500, right? Not so fast! They’ve got a -1.5 PD which is 19th in our league. They are below average in terms of PPS (18th), PPS allowed (21st), and rebounding (18th RD). The turnover margin is decent (13th in TOM). That said, the West got tougher today with some trades. I see the Warriors slipping below .500 and missing the playoffs. PS Dirk is amazing. OUTLOOK: Late lotto
9. Mavs – They are somehow 9-10 despite a talented roster, but they just traded for Mash which should help them get over .500. They also have more home games than road games left (8 of 19 at home so far). Turnovers and defensive efficiency have been excellent (5th in Tom and 2nd in PPP against). Dallas has been below average on the boards (20th in RD), but the true issue lies in their points per shot which is just 27th in the league. Enter Mash… just what the doctor ordered. OUTLOOK: Playoff team
10. Sonics – The Truth shall set you free! Or prevent you from getting a top 5 lottery pick (9-10). The almost .500 record hides the fact that they have a -3.8 point differential which is 21st in the league. Seattle isn’t horrible at anything though – 13th in RD, 21st in TOM, 24th in points per shot, and 14th in points per shot allowed. OUTLOOK: Top 10 pick but not top 5.
11. Lakers – The historically great franchise is slightly improved from last season, though they still have a putrid -7.4 PD (23rd). They can clean the glass (5th in RD) but just give it away once they have it (last in TOM). A below average offense and defense (20th and 22nd) round out a team ripe for another lotto pick to add to their core. OUTLOOK: Hoping for a top 5 pick but far from a given.
12. Blazers – Let’s cut right to the chase. Portland stinks. In kind of a good way. They should be right around a top 5 pick, they have a -8.3 PD (25th) through almost a quarter of the season. Their best area is defensive efficiency (19th) and their worst is the glass (27th in RD). OUTLOOK: Potential top 5 pick
13. Suns – After nabbing the second pick last year, Phoenix is looking to do the same thing again this year! Their -9.3 PD is going to help that cause, as they rank 26th in the league. Remarkably, they are 28th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Rebounding and turnovers aren’t as big of issues for them (21st and 17th respectively). OUTLOOK: Likely top 5 pick, good shot at a top 3
14. Rockets – This team is stripped down for parts. A -17 PD is impressive in the worst way, but also the best way if you want the top pick. They are 2-15 and that is actually about right somehow. Yikes! Yao would be a good start though. They are dead last in rebounding and offensive efficiency, and 23rd in TOM and defense. OUTLOOK: Top pick (pre-lotto)!
Note when I talk about offensive and defensive efficiency and rankings I am basing that on points per shot and addressing extra possessions generated via turnovers and rebounds separately. I estimate shots by taking FGA + FTA/2.2 (and-1s, three point fouls are why I don’t divide by 2). I also use TOM (Turnover margin) and RD (rebound differential), which is turnover advantage per game and rebound advantage per game.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Nets – New Jersey was anointed the favorite in the conference after trading for MJ. As they sit atop the East with a 14-5 record and a sterling +9.5 point differential, the Nets have looked the part to start the season here. Only 8 of their 19 have been at home so far… Their point per shot (PPS) rankings aren’t eye-popping (12th on offense, 7th on defense). But the Nets lead the league in rebound differential (RD) and are 11th in turnover margin (TOM), and those extra possessions compared to their opponents pay off big time. OUTLOOK: Title Contender
2. Cavs – Cleveland has had a strong start to the season at 12-5 (9 home games) with a +7.3 point differential. The team certainly reflects GP more this season – fourth in rebounding, 16th in turnovers, and all the way up to 11th in defensive PPS (aka points allowed per shot). The offense is still very strong at 4th in PPS. The increased balance seems to be helping them. They will be a tough out for sure and are making my 55-win prediction look good! OUTLOOK: Title Contender
3. Heat – Kobe looks pretty good here as his deals have put him tied for 2nd in the east with a nice 12-5 record with just 7 home games so far. Their point differential of +5.6 is good for seventh in the league. Rebounding is a small issue (17th in RD) but their TOM is great at #3 in the whole league. The scary part is their offensive efficiency is only 13th so far – wait until TMac heats up! The defense has improved a bunch since last year as they are now 10th there. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention (Kobe will make it too)
4. Raps – Toronto is 12-8 (11 home games) which makes Game look pretty good. On the other hand, their point differential is just +1.4. Their offensive efficiency and TOM have been good, as they rank seventh in the league in each. On the other hand, the defensive efficiency has been bad at 17th in the league, and the rebounding has been downright bad- Toronto ranks 23rd in RD! OUTLOOK: Playoff team but not that close to contending for a title
5. Pistons – Galo has the boys from Detroit at 11-8 (9 home games). Their +4.9 point differential is 8th in the league. This is a team of very clear strengths and weaknesses. Defensive efficiency? Strength! They are #1 in points allowed per shot. Rebounding? Strength! The Pistons are #2 in RD. Turnovers? Huge Weakness! 27th in TOM. Gross. Offensive efficiency is a slight weakness as well (17th). OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
6. Knicks – Skillz makes so many deals it is very hard to keep up! Their record of 9-7 with half their games at home hides how good the team is. New York ranks 9th in point differential at +4.1. They are pretty much average to good at everything. Their strength so far is points per shot where they rank sixth. Rebounding and defense are above average for the Knicks (8th in RD and 12th in defensive efficiency). The turnover battle has been pretty average as they rank just 14th in TOM. I expect more moves though, especially as they move up the standings. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
7. Celtics – Is Boston any good? They started out red hot but now are just 10-8. Then again, they’ve had twice as many road games as home (12 vs 6) and still sport a point differential in the positives at +2.3, good for 13th in the league. They’ve done a good job winning the turnover battle as their TOM ranks #6. The offensive efficiency is just outside of the top ten at #11 (thanks AI!). Otherwise, the C’s are EXACTLY average, ranking 15th in RD and defensive efficiency. OUTLOOK: Should reset CY.
8. Wizards – Washington is kind of a pleasant surprise at 8-6 (even home/road split). They are sporting a +3 PD which is 11th. With Redd Peja and Terry lighting it up from deep you’d expect their offensive efficiency to be carrying them, but they are actually 19th in that metric. The lack of free throw attempts and poor 2p% hurts the former Bullets (outside the big 3 they can’t put it in the hoop). The defensive efficiency (sixth best) has buoyed them. Ranking 11th in TOM and 14th in RD hasn’t hurt either. OUTLOOK: Should reset CY.
9. Hornets – Well they’ve traded Zo for 7 first round picks so I don’t even know if it is worth talking about them. They did have a +2.9 PD which is twelfth, so they probably could have tried to compete and not let the 8-9 record deter them. OUTLOOK: Well they decided to tank…
10. Magic – Orlando has been a big surprise at just two games below .500 (8-10). Ten of the games have been at home… The point differential is -3.5 (20th in the league). Thus I think we can expect them to fall a little in the standings going forward. The Magii have gotten crushed on the boards (25th in RD) but are average when it comes to the turnover battle (15th in TOM). The offensive and defensive efficiency has been below average (21st and 20th) respectively. Toine and JJ been balling but they need some help! OUTLOOK: Tanking but won’t get to the bottom.
11. Bulls – The rumors are swirling in the windy city as the hometown squad sits at just 6-11. They’ve had nine home games so you can’t blame that for the bad start. Eisley being injured hasn’t helped, but still… The point differential is only -0.5 (17th) which would suggest more like a 0.500 team than a team losing 2/3s of its games. Funny enough, they are #1 in TOM. That’s the only good news though. Chicago ranks 26th and 24th in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively. The rebounding is below average as the Bulls are 19th in RD. OUTLOOK: They could still make the playoffs but don’t have the look or feel of a contender.
12. Pacers – Indiana is trying to lose (4-12), but the tenth best offensive in the league isn’t helping that! The -5.0 PD should keep them well below .500 all season, but it only ranks 22nd so I don’t see them being in range for a top 3 pick before the lotto. They’ve got the tied for second worst record right now so maybe they can prove me wrong. Of note – they are have the worse defense in the league in terms of points allowed per shot. OUTLOOK: Tanking with a chance for a top 5 pick.
13. Hawks – Another tanking team (5-13). They’d be in line for the fourth pick based on the current standings but could fall even further as they have the third worst point differential (-9.5). The offense has been ok at 16th, but they rank 27th in defense and 28th in TOM. That combo should keep them towards the bottom all season long. OUTLOOK: Almost a lock for a top 5 pick, good chance at a top 3 pick
14. 76ers – Phili fans rejoice! The fifth worst record (6-15) in the league is yours! They are average in offense but very bad at everything else! In better news, their -9.8 PD is second worst in the league. That means they could move “ahead” in the race to the bottom. OUTLOOK: Good chance for a top 3 pick
15. Bucks – Not much to be excited about here. Projected for the sixth pick right now (7-16 record), they have the 23rd PD at -7.4. They are pretty much bad at all aspects, though defense isn’t horrible at 16th. Sheed needs some help but they may not pick high enough to get it. They’ve had just 10 of 23 at home s far. OUTLOOK: Definite top 10 pick with a chance at a top 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Clippers – Doing great so far but with an absolute cupcake schedule. #1 in PD, fifth and fourth in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively, sixth in RD, and second in TOM. We will see how these look once we play real teams. OUTLOOK: Title contender (but maybe 1 move away)
2. Jazz – Still the team to beat in the West in my opinion. Utah has the second best point differential in the league despite their 12-6 record. Of some concern is that 14 games have been at home. Then again Houston has missed three games. The offense ranks first, defense ranks fifth. That makes them one of just two teams in the top 5 of each. Their rebounding and turnover differentials are both top 10 as well (7th in RD and 8th in TOM), so this is a very well rounded team. OUTLOOK: Title contender (obviously)
3. Grizzlies – Memphis is looking to make people forget about their embarrassing first round exit last year as they have raced out to a 12-4 start (7 home games). That is supported by a +8.2 point differential which is fourth in the league. How are they doing it? Ranking third in rebounding and offense is a good start. Mix in being eight on defense and you’ve got a good team. The only negative is their turnovers as they rank 24th in the Association. OUTLOOK: One move away from title contention
4. Kings – Ashes has to be thrilled with the start to the season (13-6, 9 at home). Sacramento is SIXTH in the league in PD at +5.8. The backcourt of Nash and Kobe has worked as well as anyone expected, as they rank second in points per possession. That strong offense is supported by good rebounding (13th), turnover margin (9th), and defensive efficiency (13th). That said, I still think this team needs something else to get over the hump. OUTLOOK: One move away
5. Nuggets- Denver is 10-7 (8 at home) and sports a +3.9 PD. They are a good team. But I still don’t quite buy em’! They’ve had some injuries to Pippen and Shaq but I just don’t think they are at the Jazz/Clips level out West. The rebounding and offense both rank 8th so far. The Nugs rank 10th in TOM (thanks Shaq for cutting those turnovers down!). Surprisingly the defense is down to 18th after being quite good last year. If they can shore that up they will look much better. OUTLOOK: Torn between saying Playoff team or One move away from title contention
6. Spurs – San Antonio sits at just .500 but there are reasons for optimism! Only six of their sixteen games have been at home, and they just traded for Zo! Manu has been awesome! They actually have a negative point differential at -0.9 (18th) but I expect that to change post Zo. They rank well in TOM (fourth) and RD (11th) but low in offensive and defensive efficiency at 22nd and 25th respectively. Zo will shore both of those up! OUTLOOK: Playoff team
7. Timberwolves – The pups are another team running .500 so far (10 of 18 at home). Their +1 PD ranks 15th, but that hides an offense and defense that are both top-10 (9th) in efficiency. So why aren’t they better? One of the worst TOM’s in the league (ranking 26th) and just average rebounding (16th in RD). I like the Stackhouse trade, I think he is an upgrade over Spree. That will help the turnover problem somewhat. OUTLOOK: Playoff team
8. Warriors- Yet another .500 team! Golden State has only played 7 of 18 at home, so they should end up over .500, right? Not so fast! They’ve got a -1.5 PD which is 19th in our league. They are below average in terms of PPS (18th), PPS allowed (21st), and rebounding (18th RD). The turnover margin is decent (13th in TOM). That said, the West got tougher today with some trades. I see the Warriors slipping below .500 and missing the playoffs. PS Dirk is amazing. OUTLOOK: Late lotto
9. Mavs – They are somehow 9-10 despite a talented roster, but they just traded for Mash which should help them get over .500. They also have more home games than road games left (8 of 19 at home so far). Turnovers and defensive efficiency have been excellent (5th in Tom and 2nd in PPP against). Dallas has been below average on the boards (20th in RD), but the true issue lies in their points per shot which is just 27th in the league. Enter Mash… just what the doctor ordered. OUTLOOK: Playoff team
10. Sonics – The Truth shall set you free! Or prevent you from getting a top 5 lottery pick (9-10). The almost .500 record hides the fact that they have a -3.8 point differential which is 21st in the league. Seattle isn’t horrible at anything though – 13th in RD, 21st in TOM, 24th in points per shot, and 14th in points per shot allowed. OUTLOOK: Top 10 pick but not top 5.
11. Lakers – The historically great franchise is slightly improved from last season, though they still have a putrid -7.4 PD (23rd). They can clean the glass (5th in RD) but just give it away once they have it (last in TOM). A below average offense and defense (20th and 22nd) round out a team ripe for another lotto pick to add to their core. OUTLOOK: Hoping for a top 5 pick but far from a given.
12. Blazers – Let’s cut right to the chase. Portland stinks. In kind of a good way. They should be right around a top 5 pick, they have a -8.3 PD (25th) through almost a quarter of the season. Their best area is defensive efficiency (19th) and their worst is the glass (27th in RD). OUTLOOK: Potential top 5 pick
13. Suns – After nabbing the second pick last year, Phoenix is looking to do the same thing again this year! Their -9.3 PD is going to help that cause, as they rank 26th in the league. Remarkably, they are 28th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Rebounding and turnovers aren’t as big of issues for them (21st and 17th respectively). OUTLOOK: Likely top 5 pick, good shot at a top 3
14. Rockets – This team is stripped down for parts. A -17 PD is impressive in the worst way, but also the best way if you want the top pick. They are 2-15 and that is actually about right somehow. Yikes! Yao would be a good start though. They are dead last in rebounding and offensive efficiency, and 23rd in TOM and defense. OUTLOOK: Top pick (pre-lotto)!
